The 20% rise in Arizona mortality isn’t entirely due to viruses | Kingman Daily Miner

Phoenix-Arizona saw a 20% increase in deaths in the first seven months of the year. Not all are directly related to the coronavirus.

Public health experts say it will take months to determine what is driving the mortality. Possible explanations include overdose and suicide by people who suffer isolation or unemployment during a pandemic. Patients who collapsed due to chronic illness after postponing hospital visits, fearing infection with the virus. And the death from Arizona’s tough regular flu season, which lasted from October to April.

Dr. Bob England, former director of public health in Maricopa and Pima counties, said:

The Arizona Department of Health said it had received an informal report of an increase in 911 calls, which may suggest that people are delaying basic medical care during a pandemic. Mortality from overdose is also on the rise, and some communities have reported slight spikes in suicide.

A more complete understanding of the numbers will be revealed after the death certificate is reviewed, the agency said,

The state recorded more than 7,100 deaths in the first seven months of the year compared to the same period in 2019. About 4,100 deaths are a direct result of the coronavirus, leaving 3,000 deaths from other causes. A total of 42,582 people died in the first seven months of the year in Arizona.

“Are some of them related to isolation and loneliness? That was one of the things we were worried about,” said Cara Christ, the state’s chief public health officer, last month. Admitted when asked if there was a link between pandemics and suicide and overdose.

Some of the deaths may be indirectly related to the virus, said Dr. Rebeckensen Shine, director of medicine for disease management at the Maricopa County Health Department. For example, people with congestive heart failure or lung disease may have a mild infection with COVID-19 and worsen their underlying disease.

“They can actually collapse with heart failure and lung disease, and may not even know about COVID-19,” Sunenshine said.

Dr. Greg Hess, a Pima County doctor, writes an analysis of the increased mortality that occurred despite a slight decrease in homicide and suicide in his jurisdiction.

In Pima County, deaths from overdose began to increase before the onset of pandemics, and Hess was unable to conclude whether those deaths were virus-related.

Many have predicted that deaths from road accidents during a pandemic will decrease as people spend less time working at home and driving. Hess said he found a slight increase in motor vehicle deaths in Pima County.

Zhao Chen, a chronic disease epidemiologist and professor at the University of Arizona Department of Public Health, said deaths have increased in other states as well since the beginning of the pandemic.

Mr. Chen said growth in Arizona could explain some of the overall increase in deaths, but he doesn’t think growth is the only factor.

“There are signs that the excess deaths cannot be explained, depending on the size of the population and the season of the flu epidemic,” Chen said.

Chen said that some of the deaths that might have been due to COVID-19 might have been due to other causes when virus testing kits were lacking early in the pandemic.

England said it expects an increase in deaths not directly attributable to the coronavirus to continue throughout the pandemic. One reason is that some people who do not have health insurance after losing their jobs may not get the usual level of medical care.

“The inability to control the virus itself, and without seriously damaging the economy, will have long-term health consequences, including additional deaths,” said England.

The Health Department said a final report on the causes of death in 2020 will be available later next year.

“It takes a while to determine whether it’s due to COVID’s indirect or COVID’s direct, and whether all the increase is due to COVID, or something else is happening. It will take time.” Sunenshine said.