Research analyzes how contraception, girls’ education can accelerate fertility declines

Reviewed by Emily Henderson, B.Sc.September 8, 2020

The spread of contraceptives and, to a lesser extent, the education of girls up to at least 14 years old has had the greatest impact on the country’s fertility rate.

Education and family planning have long been linked to declining birth rates. But a new study from the University of Washington analyzes the factors that aren’t to identify those that are accelerating the decline of high-fertility countries.

In a paper published on July 23 Population and development review, Daphne Lieu, who holds a PhD in Statistics from UW, and Adrian Raftery, a professor of statistics and sociology at UW, explores two subtle questions. And is it the number of years girls are in school or the overall enrollment of school children that makes education a factor of infertility?

“Policies in countries with high fertility rates are interested in accelerating the decline in fertility rates, because a sharp increase in population could lead to undesirable economic, environmental and public health consequences. “Mr. Liu says. “Policies that increase access to education and family planning are generally believed to accelerate the decline in fertility rates by empowering individuals, especially girls and women, to achieve their desires in life. The biggest impact on the decline in the birth rate”

With the world’s population projected to reach 10.9 billion by 2100, much of that growth is expected to occur in prolific countries in Latin America, Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals refer to the role that sustainable fertility plays in national environmental, economic and population health, and how family planning enables individuals to achieve their fertility goals. I am.

Higher fertility rates may increase the availability of resources in the country, but a fertility rate of less than 2.1 per woman may lead to a lack of long-term economic growth. The birth rate in today’s world, where the birth rate per woman is 2.5, has declined from 3.2 in 1990, but in some countries some parts of the world have reported birth rates of 4 or more per woman. Is high.

The Liu and Raftery study uses UN data on fertility rates since 1970 and combines it with data on education and contraception to determine which factors have the greatest impact. All countries in the survey sample were classified as having a slow but slow transition from high birth rates.

Within the family planning category, Liu and Raftery examined two factors over time. Contraceptive prevalence is the percentage of women using modern contraception. Percentage of women who have an unmet need, want to delay or stop childbirth but are not using contraception. Although the difference between the two metrics may seem small, Liu shows that the unmet need reflects a virtual interest in family planning, while contraceptive prevalence is real. I pointed out that it reflects usage. Studies have found that the prevalence of contraception has a significantly greater effect.

For example, El Salvador’s data show that the link between increased use of contraceptives and the corresponding decrease in birth rate is particularly pronounced. The country’s total fertility rate increased from 5.44 deliveries per woman in the mid 1970s when 28% of women were contraceptive to 2.72 in the mid 2000s, when the prevalence of contraception more than doubled. ..

Liu and Raftery also wanted to investigate the impact of education on fertility changes. To this end, they investigated two different aspects of education that relate to both cultural values ​​and economic consequences. The latter arises from the academic and professional opportunities available to women and girls who can influence decisions regarding childbirth. The former is hypothesized to affect fertility. Because more children going to school can be expensive to raise and prevent families from having more children.

Liu and Raftery have discovered that education affects fertility. The main reason for this is the educational background of girls, especially in their early teens (the “middle” level of school). Generally considered the final stage of basic education, completing at least secondary education had a greater impact on lower fertility than completing primary education alone.

In Kenya, women’s educational background increased significantly, reaching 59% in the mid-2010s, with 12% reaching lower levels of secondary education in the mid-1970s. The contraceptive rate in Kenya also steadily increased from 5% to 51%, but the total fertility rate fell from 7.64 births per woman to 4.06.

Yet, of the two elements of family planning and education, family planning played a greater role in accelerating the transition. “It’s important to know that family planning is very important,” Ruffthali said. “But both factors are important and they work together. Education gives women many opportunities instead of having a large family, and family planning gives them the means to achieve their goals. “

Overall, sub-Saharan Africa, where some of the countries with the highest fertility rates are located, saw a decline in fertility rates, but at a slower pace than other fertile regions of the world. This may be related to not only the quality of education, but also the economic development and cultural values ​​of family size. In line with the UN Sustainable Development Goals, policymakers and NGOs should continue to focus on education and the availability and acceptance of contraceptives for women.