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Researchers predict the outbreak of several mosquito-borne diseases

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Not all mosquitoes are created equal. Different species of flying pests breed in different temperature ranges and transmit different diseases. Stanford led from this starting point paper First predicted how, when, and where malaria will subside in Sub-Saharan Africa, and dramatically increase other mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue fever. Article published on September 9 Lancet planetary health, Warns of public health disasters if the region fails to supplement its focus on malaria and include strategies tailored to other mosquito-borne diseases.

Rob Jordan & Ian Fitzgerald

In sub-Saharan Africa, warm climates and urbanization can reduce the incidence of malaria and increase the incidence of other mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue fever. Public health strategies need to be adapted to avoid public health crises.

“Climate change will reshape the situation of infectious diseases,” said Stanford biologist and principal author. Erin Mordecai.. “The recent outbreaks of chikungunya and dengue we have seen in East Africa are more likely to occur in much of the continent. We need to be prepared for this new threat.”

The story of two mosquitoes

Midnight eating Anopheles Mosquitoes transmit malaria. Malaria affects more than 200 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa, with more than 400,000 deaths in 2018. Over the years, public health activities in the area have targeted damage from insecticide-treated bed nets and indoor spraying, among other measures.

But these malaria-focused control strategies do little to combat daytime bite Aedes aegypti Mosquitoes that can spread a variety of devastating diseases such as Rift Valley Fever, Yellow Fever, Zika, Chikungunya, and Dengue. Growing urbanization has expanded Aedes aegyptiRange of Expand its preferred breeding ground – Man-made containers such as discarded tires, cans, buckets, and water storage jugs. In contrast, malaria-borne mosquitoes breed in pools of naturally occurring water that are more common in rural areas. Expanding urban areas form heat islands or microclimates that are a few degrees warmer than the surrounding vegetation-another attraction for warm climates Aedes aegypti..

Past research Mordecai and other researchers have found that warmer temperatures increase the transmission of diseases that carry the epidemic to optimal temperatures, the “turning point” at which the transmission slows. Different mosquitoes adapt to different temperatures to carry different diseases. Malaria is most likely to spread at 25 degrees Celsius (78 degrees Fahrenheit) and Dengue has the highest risk at 29 degrees Celsius (84 degrees Fahrenheit).

As a result, the world of warming meant an increase in dengue fever. According to the World Health Organization, 2019 was the worst year on record for this disease, with cases in all regions, including countries that had never seen dengue.

According to Mordecai and her colleagues, the shift to mosquitoes carrying non-malarial diseases is likely to accelerate with climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa. While warming can increase the number of mosquitoes carrying malaria in relatively cooler areas such as the highlands, it also increases the number of mosquitoes carrying dengue fever and other illnesses in warmer lowlands such as Accra in Ghana. May reduce the number.

According to research, some places get a double punch. By 2050, both malaria and dengue will be at high risk in areas around Lake Victoria, such as Kesum in Chems and Entebbe in Wenda, to the west in areas such as Mbarara, Tanzania, Uganda, and Mwanza. Enlarge

Increasing storms and possible solutions

Evidence of a potential explosion of a disease transmitted by Aedes aegypti It already exists in sub-Saharan Africa. In recent years, dengue infections and major Chikungunya epidemics have been seen in Kenya and Sudan. Researchers show that the lack of public awareness Aedes aegypti Although mosquito ecology and risk of exposure increase the likelihood of developing non-malaria mosquito-borne illnesses, the health systems in these areas have such a I have missed many cases.

“There is no cure for these diseases, so it’s important to focus on controlling mosquitoes that infect diseases like dengue,” said the senior author of the study. Desiree Labeau, Pediatric professor, Stanford Medical College People who have recorded arbovirus exposure and increased disease in Kenya for the past 15 years. “Additionally, the transition from malaria to dengue can overwhelm the healthcare system because the illness introduced to new populations often causes large outbreaks.”

In Sub-Saharan Africa, as is done in the Americas, Aedes aegypti The researchers also argue that dengue, chikungunya, and other viruses need to be added to existing malaria control measures. In particular, the development of accurate point-of-care diagnostics for dengue and chikungunya Community-based mosquito controlDebris removal and retention water coverings are becoming increasingly important for targeted care and prevention.

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