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Flock immunity “before schedule”



When a new virus is introduced to the inhabitants, after all, enough people buy pure immunity, allowing people with diverse tendencies to decline. It is claimed that the herd has reached immunity if the tilted amount is low enough to prevent the development of the epidemic.

In the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, some consultants estimated that the population or an additional 70% may have to achieve immunity sooner than COVID-19 falls below control. Currently, consultants have suggested that the proportion may also be significantly reduced, and some areas may have already reached what is called the herd immune threshold (HIT).

Scientist: COVID herd immune threshold lower than expected

According to the New York Times, more than 12 scientists mentioned in the interview said COVID-19’s HIT would probably be less than 50%. “If that’s true, we may be able to get the coronavirus back faster than previously thought,” The Times reports.1 Maybe without the need for a vaccine.

Flock immunity is calculated using fertility, or R-naught (R0). R-naught (R0) is a presumed type of new infection originating from one particular contaminated person.2 R0 below 1 (R1 means that a contaminated person is expected to contaminate another particular person) indicates that the number of instances is decreasing, and R0 above 1 indicates that the number of instances is decreasing. Indicates that the number of instances is increasing.

Nevertheless, an individual’s susceptibility to an infectious disease is excluded from accurate science because it depends on many factors such as neighborhood health, age, and contact information. The preliminary R0 calculation of HIT for COVID-19 is based primarily on the assumption that everyone has the same susceptibility and can be randomly mixed with others in the neighborhood.

“That doesn’t happen in reality,” Dr. Saad Omer, director of the Yale University Institute for Global Health, instructed The Times. “Herd immunity varies from group to group and from population to population,” and even zip codes.3

HIT drops considerably when real contingencies are added to the equation. Some consultants say it can be as high as 10% to 20%. In fact, it is possible that the herd’s immunity to the pandemic is “more than planned” because the Times is driving it.Four

Immunity threshold for COVID-19 herds may be less than 10%

Researchers at Virginia Tech Oxford and Liverpool School of Tropical MedicineFive HIT drops to less than 10% among those found when certain person variability in susceptibility and public relations is taken into account.6

Independent informative off-guardian7 In addition, citing knowledge from Stockholm County, Sweden, we identified a 17% hit.8 In addition to an essay by Dr. Andrew Bostom, a professor at Brown University,9

“… [A] A respected team of infectious disease epidemiologists in the United Kingdom and the United States said, “Naturally acquired immunity to SARS-CoV-2 puts the population above the immunity threshold of the herd if only 10-20% of the individual is immune. There is a possibility. “

And in an article he wrote for a conservative review, Bostom said:Ten

“… The mixture of naturally acquired swarm immunity to COVID-19, especially the serious safety of residents of elderly housing and long-term care housing, is a suspicious all-rounder of mass vaccination against the virus. Unlike medicine, it is very cheap and practical.

This method was effectively applied in Malmö, Sweden, where there were few deaths from COVID-19 by thoroughly protecting elderly care facilities, but “the faculty remains open and residents are in bars and I continued to eat at the cafe, and the doorways of the beauty salon and gymnasium were opened.

The findings have an effective effect on vaccination. As a result of the viral infection, Tom Briton, a mathematician at Stockholm University, said that as a result of the viral infection, which is essentially the most prone through the first wave, “immunity following the wave of infection is more than a vaccination campaign trying to protect. Also instructed Times to be distributed efficiently. Everyone. “11

In addition, if Harvard immunologist Dr. Michael Mina obtains herd immunity through the “super spreader” opportunity, the vaccination team revealed in such situations will elicit herd immunity. It has been shown that it may be sufficient for. No need for general vaccination.12

Herd immunity is likely in some areas

Perhaps the regions of the world have already achieved herd immunity, and all eyes are turned to fall and winter to see if COVID-19 reappears. “I’m ready to believe that New York City and London have significant immune pockets,” Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health epidemiologist Birhanage instructed the Times. “What happens this winter will reflect that.”13

In addition, we have the knowledge to advise that 80% of individuals seen in the clinic have COVID-19 antibody. There is also no doubt that herd immunity already exists in certain populations, while prices may fall among many the general population. A survey of random households in Mumbai found that 58% of residents in poorer areas had antibodies, compared to 17% in other parts of the town.14

In addition, one study found that 81% of individuals not exposed to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, are in a position to initiate an immune response to it. -Immune protection from SARS-CoV-2 …15

Naive Sweden, which has dealt with pandemics in a different way than much of the world, may also be approaching herd immunity. Excessive faculties and colleges were closed and gatherings of more than 50 people were banned, but primary and central faculties, outlets and eateries remained open throughout the pandemic.16 Distinguish from many different countries with strict blockades.

Dr. Gilbert Birdin, a professor of drug therapy at Texas Tech University Health Sciences Center, used his knowledge of COVID-19’s daily mortality to track the course of pandemics in Sweden, New York, Illinois, and Texas. .. Supports different pandemics.

Sweden, where the management group served as Sweden for failing to implement the required lockdown, peaked on April 8, 2020 with 11.38 deaths per million per million per day, on April 15, 2020. He died again, but the number of deaths has decreased since then.

“The daily mortality rate for the last 18 days has been less than 1 per day per million people. Very few cases. For all practical purposes, the covid-19 epidemic has ended in Sweden. Verdine almost certainly achieved herd immunity in Sweden, regardless of the results of the antibody test, “he wrote to the non-profit think tank Mieses Institute.17

Blockade “the biggest policy error of this generation”

In New York City, COVID-19 mortality reached the last 50 deaths per million per day in April 2020, regardless of whether full lockdown was applied in March. .. The state ordered the nursing facility to accept COVID-19 constructive patients from the hospital until May 10, when the order was reversed until May 10, but by then the virus had already been in the elderly in the nursing facility. Was destroying.

“By promoting the transmission of the virus from hospitals to nursing homes, the rate of spread within the elderly population has been maximized, raising doubts about the potential benefits of blocking the young and healthy population,” Birdin said. Defined.18

Meanwhile, strict lockdowns have been further applied in Illinois, with daily mortality increases very slowly, with more than 15 deaths per million per day on May 17, 2020. It has reached its peak.

However, mortality rates are far from even lower, and mortality rates remain higher than in other regions. Lockdown seems to have succeeded in flattening the curve and delaying transmission between healthy populations, but it can also increase the amount of time young people can transmit the virus to older people. There is.

“Lockdown seems to have caused more covid-19 deaths in Illinois than would have happened without it,” Berdine said.19 “Flock immunity is almost certainly not achieved until school and economy are reopened.”

Texas fell somewhere in the heart and had a slower lockdown than Illinois and New York, but unimportant companies were closed on March 31 and even more faculties were closed. The daily mortality rate on July 31, 2020 peaked at more than 10 deaths per day per million inhabitants. Sweden’s mortality peak is approaching, but the financial system needs to reopen. Verdine wrote:

“Texas has a lower overall Texas covid-19 mortality rate (293 deaths per million people) than Sweden (570), but Texas has a much higher daily mortality rate than Sweden today. The state’s covid-19 mortality rate is Sweden for the next 30-60 days. In addition, the situation in Texas can worsen as schools and the economy reopen.20

Sweden’s seemingly pandemic response is another example, but blockades in various regions may have backfired. At best, lockdowns can postpone the end for a short period of time, and at worst, add more than if people were left to learn how to deal with their own threats. It states that it can lead to death.

“After taking into account the unprecedented economic recession, history will probably determine that these lockdowns are the biggest policy error of this generation.”twenty one She said.

When will the pandemic end?

Herd immunity is probably progressing ahead of schedule, and perhaps in some areas of already immunity, when will the pandemic end? World Health Organization predicts within two years,twenty two However, lower mortality rates are not currently the trigger for hysteria.

The data show that the cost of death for these COVID-19s under the age of 45 is “nearly zero”, between the ages of 45 and 70, between 0.05% and 0.3%.twenty three In addition, data from the CDC show a significant reduction in COVID-19 mortality, mostly based on provisional mortality. It is largely based on knowledge of death certificates obtained and coded by the National Health Center for Health Statistics.twenty four

Nevertheless, the reality that COVID-19 never disappears completely remains the same. “Covid-19 will not be defeated. We need to learn how to co-exist with it,” Birdin said.twenty five “The only way we can learn the best way to deal with covid-19 is for individuals to manage their risks, observe their consequences and learn from their mistakes.” Take action now to finish it off. Raise your immune system for all types of infections.

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