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Scientists predict that COVID-19 will become a seasonal virus, but still



SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, coronavirus

Colored scanning electron micrograph of SARS-CoV-2 virus. Credit: NIAID

We are all familiar with the seasonal patterns of some respiratory viruses, thanks to the smell of the nose, cough and cold that accompany the coldest months of the year. New review published in Public health frontier COVID-19, a disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, continues similarly in mild climate countries, suggesting that it becomes seasonal, but only if herd immunity is achieved. .. Until then, COVID-19 will continue to be distributed over the seasons. These conclusions underscore the absolute importance of public health measures now needed to control the virus.

“COVID-19 stays here and continues to cause outbreaks all year round until flock immunity is achieved,” said Dr. Hassan Salackett of the American University in Beirut, Lebanon, a senior author of the study. You need to learn that and continue to practice the best precautions, such as wearing a mask, physical distance, hand hygiene, and avoiding meetings. “

Dr. Hadiyasin, co-author of Qatar University in Doha, confirms and states that multiple waves of COVID-19 may exist before herd immunity is achieved.

I know a lot It follows seasonal patterns, especially in temperate regions. For example, some types of coronaviruses that cause influenza and colds peak in winter in temperate regions, but are known to circulate year-round in tropical regions. The authors reviewed these seasonal viruses, the virus and They not only control seasonality, but also the latest knowledge about the stability and propagation of SARS-CoV-2.

Researchers explain that human behavior, such as virus survival in the air and on the surface, people’s susceptibility to infection, and indoor congestion, varies from season to season due to changes in temperature and humidity. These factors affect the transmission of respiratory viruses at different times of the year.

However, the transmission rate (R0) of COVID-19 is higher than that of other respiratory viruses such as influenza. This is due, at least in part, to circulation in immunologically naive populations.

This means that, unlike influenza and other respiratory viruses, the factors that influence the seasonality of the virus cannot prevent the spread of COVID-19 during the summer months. However, when herd immunity is achieved by natural infection and vaccination, R0 is significantly reduced, making the virus more susceptible to seasonal factors.

Such seasonality has been reported for other coronaviruses, including those that have recently emerged, such as NL63 and HKU1, which follow the same circulation pattern as influenza.

“This is still a new virus, and despite the rapid growth of science, there is still something unknown. Whether our predictions hold or not remains to be seen in the future. So far, COVID-19 will be seasonal like any other coronavirus, “Zaraket adds.

“The world’s highest per capita COVID-19 infection rate was recorded in the Gulf countries, regardless of the hot summer season. This is a rapid spread of the virus, primarily in closed communities. Due to, but strict limiting controls Until it spreads Has been achieved. ”

Follow the latest news about the outbreak of coronavirus (COVID-19)

For more information:
Public health frontier, DOI: 10.3389 / fpubh.2020.567184 ,… 2020.567184 / abstract

Quote: Scientists predict that COVID-19 will become a seasonal virus, but still (September 15, 2020), from September 15, 2020 Not obtained from scientists-covid-seasonal-virusbut.html

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