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The blockade of New York City has reduced coronavirus infections by 70%, a new study says



The city began closing public schools the week of March 15, and the following week it imposed home orders on everyone except essential workers. Restrictions continued until June, but in June the city gradually resumed, banning indoor dining and other high-risk activities.

Amesh A. Adalha, a doctor and senior scholar of infectious diseases at the Johns Hopkins Health and Safety Center, said it was not surprising that the closure would curb the spread of the coronavirus.

However, Adalha, who was not involved in the study, said it was important to see the “big picture” as well. “What are the other health measures and their impact on the overall health of the population?”

He cited, for example, the effects that restrictions may have affected the ability of psychotic patients to go to group therapy, or the effects on measles vaccination coverage.

“Evidence of its ability to reduce the case of covid-19 is not proof that it is a reliable tool,” Adalja added. Situation. You ultimately cause many ancillary problems to deal with. It’s important to think about long-term public health measures. What is sustainable? “

Researchers have also found that masks played a major role in curbing spread.

The following study found that widespread use of facial covers was associated with a 7% reduction in infections during the first month of enforcement in public spaces.

“But its effectiveness varied very significantly between different age groups in the population,” said Wang Yang, an assistant professor of epidemiology at the Columbia Mailman School.

Facial coverings helped reduce infections in people over the age of 65 by about 20%, compared to less than 10% in most other age groups.

These numbers reflect the reality that people do not always wear masks consistently or correctly.

Yang, the lead author of the study, said it is not surprising that older people took more effective masking behavior compared to younger people who might choose comfort over mask adherence. It was.

“Older people know they are at higher risk and want to wear face masks properly when they’re outside,” she said, adding that “from personal observation, they’re more cautious. There is a tendency. From time to time, I saw some older people wearing two masks to cover all the foundations. “

Researchers write that if other age groups can model older people’s mask-wearing behavior, covering a universal face can reduce viral infections by up to 32%. According to Yang, wearing a mask “clearly has room for improvement.”

As the city continued to reopen and more people went outdoors after staying at home for months, Yang said that improving mask wear became especially important, especially when “covids recurred in controlled areas.” And to reduce the risk of doing it, “and after a serious period of the pandemic, we are now resuming in an attempt to regain some normality. “

Jeffrey Sherman, a professor of environmental health sciences in Colombia and co-author of the study, said in a statement:

Researchers used city data on case numbers and deaths and mobility data from SafeGraph, a company that collects mobile phone location information, to simulate the spread of the coronavirus and estimate infection. This study was submitted to MedRxiv, a preprint server for unpeer-reviewed studies.

The findings are particularly noteworthy, as New York, the US epicenter of the coronavirus, is in the process of reopening. All regions of the state have entered Phase 4 of the reopening. For the first time in a few months, New York City meals Eat inside Restaurant at the end of September.

New research on New York closures Ruled by a federal judge This week, the regulation ordered by Pennsylvania Governor Tom Wolfe (D) to curb the spread of the coronavirus was unconstitutional. President Trump, who repeatedly accused the Democratic governor of state-wide restrictions, praised the decision and said he hoped that similar decisions would continue in other states.

Adalja said home orders were a “last resort” because of the many mistakes made in January, February and March, even if they took place in New York. The hospital overrun. It was not possible to know who was infected and who was not. “

Studies have shown that shutdowns work to control the spread of the virus, according to Yang.

“No one wants lockdown, right? So it’s really important when it’s implemented,” she said. “Our study shows that it is very effective, especially for covid. It’s really hard to detect. If a fairly high infection rate is detected in a population, the infection spreads to the community. It may be. “

In the future, Yang said that in addition to improving masking, public health protocols such as contact tracking, corporate occupancy limits, and testing and quarantine are needed at the same time to simultaneously reduce the risk of resurrection. Said that it would be.

Mr. Yang said public messaging is important, including the importance of facial coverage.

“What can we do to prevent another lockdown? We are all on the same ship, so we have to tell you that everyone’s efforts are important,” she said. “This is not about individuals. For it to work, we as a society must act together.”

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