How different is the COVID-19 lockdown? – Reason.com

New York Times explain Sweden’s approach to COVID-19 is particularly less restrictive in that it is “disastrous” and “disastrous” than the policies adopted in other European countries and the United States. In contrast, Scott Atlas of the Hoover Institution, a doctor advising President Donald Trump about the epidemic, thinking Swedish policy is “relatively rational” and “has been inappropriately criticized.”

The clear disagreement about Sweden is part of a broader debate about the cost-effectiveness of the broad blockade as a strategy for dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic. It’s too early to reach a firm conclusion, but the evidence so far is that Sweden is far superior to the United States, where the governor tried to contain the virus by imposing widespread social and economic restrictions. Suggests.

Despite some early failures (most notably, Failure (To properly protect the residents of Elderly Housing with Care), Sweden is generally Highest risk While dying from COVID-19, everyone except a few US governors gave others far more freedom than was granted by the blockade imposed last spring. Sweden is not proceeding as usual, as the government has imposed some restrictions (including a ban on epidemics) and issued recommendations aimed at reducing the transmission of the virus.

By comparison, the results of that policy look bad Sweden To Denmark, Finland,and Norway, Neighboring countries with far fewer deaths from COVID-19 per capita. Still, Sweden has lower mortality rates than some European countries that impose lockdowns, such as Belgium, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom.

Comparison with Sweden America It’s especially impressive. Per capita mortality in the United States has recently surpassed that in Sweden, with cumulative deaths Rise much faster In the United States.

In both countries, the average daily death toll for seven days peaked around the spring of last year. Adjusted for population, the peak was high in Sweden.

However, since then, Sweden’s average has plummeted to 99% after April 16th, compared to 65% in the United States since April 21st. The 7-day average of newly identified cases is also about 80 percent since late June.

In the United States at the same time, the first daily new cases increased, rising a month and a half after the state began unlocking. The 7-day average peaked in late July and then fell 46%.

Achieving herd immunity, which protects high-risk groups by reducing the chances of encountering carriers, was not an official goal of Swedish policy. But the recent trend is hypothesis Sweden measures some degree of herd immunity by a combination of exposure to the COVID-19 virus, T cell responses promoted by previous exposure to other coronaviruses, and greater natural resistance in the remaining uninfected population. Achieved.

In the United States, on the other hand, lockdowns come at a huge cost, and while there was no clear return in terms of the low number of COVID-19 deaths, the timing of those deaths may have changed. Perhaps the result will be different if the lockdown was previously imposed or if it was released more carefully later.

But probably not. At the National Bureau of Economic Research paper UCLA economist Andrew Atkeson and two other researchers, published last month, found that by late July, more than 1,000 people had died of the disease in 23 countries and 25 US states with a COVID-19 trend. After investigating, policy differences are epidemic routes in different places.

Atkeson and his co-authors conclude that the role of legal regulation is “probably exaggerated,” and their findings “raise doubts about the importance of lockdown in controlling epidemics.” Stated. This is not the first time people have ignored everything else and exaggerated the effectiveness of government actions.

© Copyright 2020 by Creators Syndicate Inc.