COVID-19 data: Survey of what is driving the latest increase in Utah coronavirus cases

Salt Lake City — Anyone who has followed the COVID-19 trend in the last few weeks has noticed another uptrend in the cases reported in Utah.

The Beehive epidemiological curve showed a slowdown near the end of July, following the highest number of cases reported so far. The rise happened shortly after Memorial Day, after the state experienced a plateau in a new case a few weeks before the holidays.

After July 18th, it fell steadily from the rise of Memorial Day, and rose a little until mid-August. However, the epidemiological curve has moved upwards again since the last reported decline in cases on August 18.

It raises the question: what is driving the recent rise in the state of the incident?

This is what the data shows.

Young people are pushing for the COVID-19 case — more than ever

We already know some of this. Utah, with the youngest average population in the country, has dealt with young people driving COVID-19 (new coronavirus infection) (# If there is no character limit, add parentheses when it first appears Cases where the elderly and people with certain conditions generally suffer from the worst results. I’m not saying that was always the case.

Utanians between the ages of 25 and 44 make up most cases in other age groups. Six months after the pandemic, as of Tuesday, there are 21,681 cases in the category, or about 37%.

Students under the age of 25 are beginning to accumulate new cases. It was feared that this would happen when both kindergarten to high school institutions started in August and continued in September. Utahn between the ages of 15 and 24 accounts for the second highest number of cases, with a total of 14,805 cases, about a quarter of the state’s total since March. Individuals aged 1 to 14 account for 4,117 cases, accounting for 7% of the total, and individuals under the age of 1 account for 241 cases.

The gap between young and old individuals has widened in recent weeks. In addition, hospitalizations for young people are beginning to increase as well, compared to the beginning of the pandemic.

How do you know that? Use the internal database of State Health Department Daily Information, Compared age range data from three major dates: May 28 (the beginning of the first major rise in Utah), July 18 (the beginning of the decline period from that rise), and Tuesday. Current tally of. We also removed children under the age of 1 in this segment due to the small statistics.

In terms of cases, Utah between the ages of 1 and 44 accounted for approximately 62% of all Utah cases on May 28. This figure moved to 67% of all cases on July 18, and now accounts for nearly 69%. This shows that the age group from 1 to 44 years is higher than the age group of 45 years and over from May 28 to the present.

It is the data within the individual age that gives an accurate indication of how that is happening. In the states from May 28th to July 18th, the total number of cases in the states from March to that year more than tripled, resulting in an increase in all groups. Here’s how each cohort increased from July 18th to Tuesday, in terms of percentage growth.

• 1-14 years old: 84.9% (1,890 new cases)
• 15-24 years: 105.4% (7,598 new cases)
• 25-44 years: 68.3% (8,800 cases)
• 45-64 years: 66.1% (5,446 cases)
• 65-84 years: 73% (new cases 1,683)
• 85+: 52.9% (164 new cases)

In fact, the age group of 15 to 24 is the newest case when returning a month before Tuesday. The age group accounted for 4,285 new cases in its span, followed by ages 25-44, with 4,070 new cases.

For the COVID-19 case since the outbreak of the pandemic, Utahn, aged 15 to 24, was the second highest group in total on September 4, over the ages of 45 to 64. The group aged 1 to 14 is the group aged 65 to 84 as the fourth largest group last month.

With the highest rate of increase between the ages of 1 and 24, it’s no wonder that schools are part of the reason for the increase. From August 15 to Tuesday, the State Department of Health reported 47 school-induced outbreaks, including 8 this week. The outbreak resulted in a total of 290 cases, with a median age of 16 years and a total of 9 cases hospitalized.

After the COVID-19 restrictions were relaxed in May, school outbreaks moved to the second most non-long-term institutional outbreaks, rather than workplaces that experienced increased outbreaks. As of Tuesday, there were 721 workplace outbreaks, resulting in 4,879 cases, 204 hospitalizations and 15 deaths. The median age of outbreaks is 38 years.

During a media briefing on a new website showing state goals with COVID-19 dataRich Sanders, Utah’s interim chief operating officer, considered setting a seven-day moving average of 300 or 350 cases per day, but kept it at 400 to allow school reopening. He said he had decided to do so. It surged from 381.6 cases per day on September 9th to 522.1 cases per day on Tuesday.

At another press conference last weekGovernor Gary Herbert said the outbreak at school expected to lead to a review of the school’s COVID-19 quarantine procedure until the vaccine became available. He added that individuals of all ages are worried about complacency regarding protective measures.

The data also show that people over the age of 45 experience the worst consequences of the coronavirus disproportionately. In fact, according to Utah Department of Health data, patients over the age of 45 may account for only 30.8% of cases, but 66% of hospitalizations and 95.6% of deaths. This explains why the Department of Health reports that the average age of hospitalization in Utah is 53 and the average age of death is 73.

With regard to hospitalization, younger people are younger, but they are slowly increasing, and in some cases, increasing at a higher rate than older people. Here’s how hospitalizations increased from July 18th to the number of Tuesdays in terms of percentage increases.

• 1-14 years: 138.9% (25 new hospitalizations)
• 15-24 years: 78.6% (103 new hospitalizations)
• 25-44 years: 70% (324 new hospitalizations)
• 45-64 years: 60% (463 new hospitalizations)
• 65-84 years: 73.1% (374 new hospitalizations)
• 85 years and over: 63.6% (49 new hospitalizations)

In a world where people of all ages collide inside and outside the home, cases involving young people and outbreaks carry the risk of others getting sick. Ah A study published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday As an example of risk, we used three child-rearing outbreaks in Utah. Twelve children caught COVID-19 in the facility and spread it to twelve 46 parents or siblings, resulting in hospitalization of the parents.

“COVID-19 is less severe in children than in adults, but children can play a role in infections,” the report said. “Infected children exposed at these three institutions had mild to no symptoms. Two of the three asymptomatic children probably infected SARS-CoV-2 with their parents, and perhaps their teachers. I was allowed to.”

Rise of Utah County

Since the pandemic arrived in Utah, we’ve seen certain areas worse than others. Salt Lake County remains a leader in most cases, but hotspots are emerging in places such as the Summit, San Juan, and Cash County. Utah County is now rising at an extraordinary rate, surpassing Salt Lake County several times since September, despite accounting for nearly half of its population.

State epidemiologist Dr. Angeladan said on Monday that 39% of all new cases in the state from Friday to Monday were reported in Utah County, even though they make up 20% of the state’s total population. I pointed out. She also pointed out that younger individuals in the county are pushing up that number.

“Most of these cases are 14 to 24 years old, and most of them are young adults in college,” she said in a statement. “Colleges throughout the state, specifically in Utah County, have been proactive in taking certain precautions on campus. They need student help to act responsibly off campus. What students do off-campus is the ability of the school to run the campus safely. “

In Utah, it accounted for 6,356 cases by July 18, when the state began to decline in patient numbers for nearly a month. That was about 18.6% of the 34,249 cases in the state at the time. The county then doubled its total to 13,528 as of Tuesday. The state has reported 24,751 new cases since July 18, and Utah County has reported about 29% of these new cases.

How does it compare to Salt Lake County? In Salt Lake County, nearly 3,000 cases have increased in the last two months, while Utah has seen a much larger increase. At that time, the COVID-19 count increased by 112.8% and the Salt Lake County count increased by 60.3%.

Other locations have also experienced uptics over the last two months, but are probably less noticeable than Utah County. For example, Davis County has nearly doubled the number of COVID-19 cases in the last two months, jumping from a total of 2,338 cases to 4,440 cases. This is an increase of about 90%. The Weber-Morgan Health Department also reported an 83.2% increase from July 18th to Tuesday. This is a jump from 2,077 cases to 3,805 cases.

Overall, between July 18th and Tuesday, the local health department at Wasatch Front accounted for 86.5% of cases. Other population hubs such as the Public Health Service in southwestern Utah (5.8% with 1,431 new cases reported) and the Bear River Health Service (3.8% with 933 new cases reported) also in July. Participated in the increase in the number of cases after the 18th.

Perhaps even more troublesome, the state’s seven-day average positive rate reached 10.6% by September 9. It’s still relatively low compared to other states, but it’s the best since the pandemic began, according to state health data. It reached 8.2% on August 17.

The data show that the coronavirus actually went nowhere after 6 months.

Contribution: Josh Furlong, KSL.com

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