Professor Philip Nolan warns that the number of Covid-19 cases is rising exponentially and that pandemics cannot be suppressed unless all citizens of the state take immediate action to reduce contact.
Professor Nolan, chair of the Epidemiological Modeling Advisory Group of the National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET), gave a tough presentation to reporters on Wednesday.
On Wednesday, the Ministry of Health confirmed an additional 254 cases, of which 136 were outbreaks in Dublin, and three more were killed by the virus. Hospitalizations have quadrupled since August and have doubled every other week, Professor Nolan said.
He said infections have increased across all age groups and the virus is now common in people over the age of 65. He added that there will be higher mortality rates in the coming weeks unless urgent action is taken.
“10% of the cases over the last 14 days were over 65,” he said. “It is completely impossible for us to protect them, or to protect ourselves from the very high levels of this disease of the general population.”
“I’m more concerned at this point than at any point since late April,” said Professor Nolan. The incidence in Dublin has increased four to five times in recent weeks, but has tripled across the country.
“We believe that the number of reproductions is somewhere in 1.3 and 1.7 across the country, so the disease is spreading rapidly,” he said. “Growth is 5-7% per day, which means that the disease is doubling every 10-14 days at this point.
“If the recall remains at 1.4, we’ll see 500-600 cases per day by October 14. We all need to change our behavior. If the recall is 1.8, we’ll see 10 By the 14th of October, about 1,200 cases can be seen per day.
“What we need to do is bring the reproductive rate back to less than 1. If the reproductive rate does not return to less than 1, we will lose control of the disease and the number of cases will be regardless of the incidence. It keeps increasing. “
Chief Medical Officer Ronan Glynn said society is facing a turning point. “All organizations, not just pubs, have a responsibility to do everything in their power to protect staff, customers and members of the sports organization.
“We are facing a turning point here as a society. We are all rethinking where we were in spring and as if this virus is around us, it is around us. You need to take action again as if.
“The only way to overcome this is for everyone to act individually and do the basics many times each day. I know people are tired of hearing it, It’s absolutely essential at this point.
“You need to distribute it to your contacts. For example, if you play sports, go to training twice a week, and play games on the weekends, you need to think about how long you want to keep it. If so, other You need to consider the factors. I’m going to reduce your contacts in your life.
“If we all try to do everything we did the way we did nine months ago, we can’t bring it back into control.”
Of the cases notified today, 115 are men, 133 are women, and 65% are under the age of 45. According to NPHET, 61% have been confirmed to be associated with outbreaks or are in close contact with confirmed cases, while 24 have been identified as community infections.
With the exception of Dublin, which accounts for more than half of the cases, 20 for Donigor, 13 for Ros, 12 for Wicklow, 9 for Waterford, 7 for Carlow, 7 for Cork, 6 for Galway and Kelly. 5 in Wexford, the remaining 28 cases in Claire, Kildare, Kilkenny, Leitrim, Limerick, Longford, Mayo, Monaghan, Offaly, Roscommon and Westmeath.
Dr. Colm Henry, Chief Clinical Officer of HSE, said. “Currently, there are 73 Covid-19 patients in the hospital, 9 of whom have been hospitalized in the last 24 hours. 14 of these patients are in the ICU. Acute hospital for Covid-19 patients. Hospitalization rates are rising sharply. We know that if these trends are not reversed, hospitalizations will escalate rapidly and medical facilities will be exposed to unsustainable pressure. It is more important than ever for everyone to adhere to the basic measures that can weaken the virus. ”
Dr. Mary Fabier, Covid-19 Advisor, Irish General Practitioner, said: A disproportionate increase in the number of confirmed cases in children. “
The numbers are carefully monitored in the capital. Earlier Wednesday, Finance Minister Pascal Donoho said Dublin could be “strong” and “very realistic” to move to Level 3 in a government plan to deal with the Covid-19 pandemic. It was.
This means more stringent restrictions on capital, and there are concerns about the spread of the disease in recent weeks. The latest figures show that the incidence of disease in the capital is about twice the national average.
With this number, Dr. Grin last week warned the government that the capital had become a “disease store” that could endanger the entire state.
Dr. Grin, released today in a letter last week, suggested that if left unchecked, it could grow to up to 300 people per day in the capital by the end of September.
In a government advice last week, Dr. Grin said that a Covid-19 infection in Dublin “can spread widely and quickly both within Dublin and elsewhere in the country.”
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