Will Covid-19 become a seasonal virus?

What does that mean for the future of Covid-19, as everything from seasonal temperature differences to changes in human behavior can affect how the virus spreads?

Well, according to recent publications, Covid-19 can become a seasonal virus like the flu.

Report published in Public health frontier, We examined previous endemic respiratory viruses such as influenza and other coronaviruses to see what happens with Covid-19.

But it’s not as simple as it sounds.

At least there is Four existing seasonal coronavirusesHowever, it is still unclear why some are seasonal and some are not.

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“Not all viruses show a higher peak of infection in winter. It depends on the route of transmission. For respiratory viruses that peak in winter, an important factor is that the actual virus resists environmental stress. These include heat, humidity and UV light, “said Mike Skinner, a virologist based in Imperial College London. BBC Science Focus Magazine..

In addition, human behavior often plays a major role in why the virus peaks in the winter months.

“In winter, it tends to be crowded and the relative humidity is high at home and at work, so we stay indoors and increase heating,” Skinner added.

Therefore, it can be difficult to determine if the virus is more affected by social behavior and body temperature. For Covid-19, both are equally influential.

However, in the latest study, researchers look at how previous endemic respiratory viruses have evolved and hypothesize that Covid-19 is likely to be seasonal in winter-experienced countries. I did.

“Tropical regions suffer from high Covid-19 pandemic loads, but virus transmission is more aggressive in temperate regions where winter is widespread. This is because cold and dry conditions cause SARS-CoV-2 infection. It shows that it has the potential to promote it, “the researchers explained in their paper.

“Based on previous knowledge of the seasonality of the respiratory virus and recent research on the stability and transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus mimics other respiratory viruses because it is warm and humid in the summer. I’m guessing that it may decline. “

However, early studies have shown that temperature has little to do with how the coronavirus spreads.

1 The study examined 144 individual Covid-19 cases. The location of March (various states, states, countries) where the pandemic was rapidly spreading around the world.

From March 7th to 13th, researchers collected data on temperature, humidity, latitude, and public health measures introduced to control viruses. We then waited two weeks for a new infection to be diagnosed and reported. Increasing cases and results during the 21-27 March period showed that the virus was not temperature dependent, but implemented public health measures such as social distance and school closures.

However, the result may be due to the fact that most people do not have immunity to it.

The lack of immunity also means that Covid-19 has a much higher infection rate (R0) than other seasonal viruses. As a result, researchers claim that Covid-19 will not become a seasonal virus until it reaches immunity.

“Covid-19 stays here and continues to cause outbreaks all year round until herd immunity is achieved,” said Hassan Zaraket, a research author at the American University in Beirut, Lebanon, in a release.

“However, when the herd is immunized by natural infection and vaccination, R0 is significantly reduced, making the virus more susceptible to seasonal factors.”

Still, many Expert Covid-19 did not work like other coronaviruses, so I can’t say if Covid-19 behaves like them. And, despite increasing scientific research, we still don’t know much about viruses and immunity.

For example Reported cases of reinfection There are currently attempts to achieve natural herd immunity failed..

And while many have hope for vaccines, there are still many questions. Period to provide protection.. further, Recent news Herd immunity is a dream, as the coronavirus vaccine will not be available to everyone until 2024.

“This is still a new virus, and despite the rapid growth of science about it, there is still something unknown. Whether our predictions hold or not will depend on what we see in the future. No, but as we all know, Covid-19 will eventually become seasonal, like any other coronavirus, “Zaraket said in a research presentation.

But is the real question “eventually” ever real?