Coronavirus London: fear of lockdown when hospitalization triples

London It is believed to be on the brink of a local blockade — but official figures indicate that the outbreak may eventually slow down despite admission to the hospital. Coronavirus Tripled in two weeks, the director of public health warns of a “storm surge” of the virus in the capital.

During a private briefing this week, Kevin Fenton, director of public health England in the capital, told the mayor of London. Sadiq Khan And all 32 ward leaders who showed that the disease was making a rapid resurgence in the city.

This week the government says it is considering a decision to put more than 9 million people in the city under even more stringent limits if the new set of country-specific social distance measurements announced this week cannot control the number of climbers. It is

Infections throughout the city have more than doubled since August, with an average of seven days per week increasing from 86 per 100,000 to 262 per 100,000. However, official figures show that the uptick of the incident has stopped throughout the capital, with only a handful of wards having a sustained increase in infection. Includes two of the three worst affected parts of the capital: Red Bridge, Barking and Dagenham.

Covid-19 hospitalizations in the capital tripled in two weeks, and the moving average increased from 11 on September 2 to 33.4 on September 18. However, the number of hospitalizations in the city is 700-plus slightly higher than in early July (around 25th), when the spring pandemic was at its peak and the country was considered safe to reopen. For comparison, three times as many hospitalizations were recorded in March as before the national blockade was imposed (425 on March 22).

And according to the latest statistics released by Public Health England, which covers the week up to September 18, one of the capital’s autonomous regions (Redbridge) is ranked among the top 40 worst hit areas in the country. The government will release the latest numbers on infections tomorrow.

However, Professor Fenton claimed that the test infrastructure had been removed from the capital and reassigned to hotspots in the north. That is, many Londoners may not have been diagnosed. However, the latest Ministry of Health figures show that tests at London’s Covid-19 hotspot are actually increasing weekly.

Statistical analysis by MailOnline found that Barking performed 2,669 swabs a week through September 16th, 25% more than the previous week’s 2,036 swabs. At Redbridge, 3,370 residents were tested for the virus during the latest reporting period. This is an increase of nearly 10% compared to 3,046 last week.

According to PHE data up to September 18, Redbridge in eastern London is the most prevalent in all parts of the capital, with a weekly prevalence of 34.2 per 100,000. The 300,000 Autonomous Region currently has the 40th highest infection rate in the UK, but the number of Covid-19 diagnoses has been increasing steadily over the past month and a half.

The figure shows that the infection rate has tripled in Redbridge since September 4, when the infection rate was 11.2 per 100,000 per week, and has increased 10-fold since the beginning of August (3.3).

Also, the actual number of new infections (numbers provided by the Ministry of Health) that Redbridge diagnoses daily is still one of the only wards that are increasing. From the three-day rolling seven-day average at the end of August, it reached almost 23 cases last weekend.

The Ministry of Health data published on the government’s coronavirus dashboard takes into account daily cases by sample date. This means that it can take 72 hours or more for the results to be returned, which is a few days late.

Hounslow’s Western London area is the second worst hit in the capital, with 32.5 cases per 100,000 per week until September 18. Like Redbridge, Hounslow has been infected with 5.9 new infections per 100,000 people in early August in the last three weeks.

However, Hounslow cases, which are home to 290,000 people, are beginning to decline, according to data from the Ministry of Health. On September 7, about 16 actual cases were diagnosed daily, starting with 4 at the end of August. However, this fell below 9 on September 16th, the most recent full-day data.

Hounslows are one of the largest South Asian populations in the country-about 20% compared to the national average of 2% -have over-affected the virus throughout the crisis.

In both districts, weekly infection rates are still significantly lower than the UK average, around 47 per 100,000. This number is distorted upwards due to the occurrence of Bolton, Blackburn, Oldham, etc.

In the East London area of ​​Barking and Dagenam, there were 29.3 infections per 100,000 people, with 12.3 cases per October and quadrupled since August 1 (100,000). 5.9 per person).

According to Ministry of Health statistics, the average number of infections per day is 7 days and is still on the rise. In the autonomous region where about 210,000 people live, an average of 4 cases were recorded daily at the end of August. Before leveling off, it soared to around 9 during the beginning of September.

However, this weekly number is not yet considered accurate as it takes three days to analyze the coronavirus test sample, but it may have been hit by another spike.

To summarize the 10 highest infection rates in London, Enfield (27.3), Newham (27), Ealing (26.9), Hackney (25.7), Tower Hamlet (25.5), Hammersmith and Fulham (24.8), Hello (24.4) and Havering (24.4) were all up and running the previous week, with the exception of Newham.

This week’s Mail Online analysis shows that a total of 20 autonomous regions across London have higher infection rates than the areas of England affected by restrictions such as Kensington and Chelsea (23.7), Wonsworth (23) and Brent 22.7. Became clear.

The latest watch list in Public Health England shows that the lowest case rate considered an “area of ​​intervention”, the English authority of greatest concern, is the Libre Valley, with 18.3 cases per 100,000.

Meanwhile, some autonomous regions of the capital have been successful in controlling virus cases since August, despite the upward trend seen nationwide.

According to PHE data up to September 18, Sutton’s South London borough is ranked in the 25 most unaffected regions of the United Kingdom, with a current weekly incidence of 9.3 per 100,000. ..

This is actually a decrease from the previous week (10.3) and only 45% from the beginning of August (6.4). Bromley (11.8), Bexley (12.1), Merton (13.6), Croydon (14) and Kingston Apontems (14.3) have the lowest infection rates five times a week after Sutton.

With the exception of Merton, all these autonomous regions do not have subway stations. British scientists have previously linked busy subway stations to influenza outbreaks.

Professor Fenton warns that the incident may be significantly underreported as Londoners struggle to gain access to the test. Increased hospital admissions and increased calls to 111 are better indicators that London was in the midst of an outbreak as serious as the northeast, he said.

Professor Fenton revealed that about one-fifth of his testing capacity has been removed from the capital and reassigned to hotspots in the north this month. In mid-August, London had about 90,000 tests each week, but by last week there were only 65,000.

Test bosses say resources needed to be prioritized when the country was struggling to increase capacity fast enough to cope with the oncoming second wave.

Boris Johnson has promised that the UK will be able to process 500,000 coronavirus tests per day by the end of next month. That’s more than double the current 242,000 capacity. However, industry insiders say that delays in machinery and chemicals may prevent this goal from being achieved.

Professor Fenton said Times: “In London, cases of coronavirus are on the rise for a wide range of age groups. This is no longer limited to young people in their twenties.

“Although the number of cases varies from autonomous region to autonomous region, the general trend across cities is one of the steady increases in infections, which can worsen the situation if it continues. “.