Houston area survives Labor Day weekend without COVID spikes

According to the latest data, Houston seems to have survived Labor Day weekend without COVID-19 spikes. Recent data show that the region is facing urgent challenges as children return to school and the economy and cooling temperatures resume.

Over 2.5 weeks after the end of the weekend, during the period when new cases and hospitalizations typically appear, data continue to slowly decline in key metrics monitored by public health authorities (case count, hospitalization, positive test rate, spread of infection). Indicates that you are doing. disease. Officials were afraid of Memorial Day and the surge in numbers following July 4th.

“We’re in a sweet spot where we expect a post-holiday uplift, but we don’t see it. That’s great news,” said Dr. Mark Boom, president of Houston Methodist. “It could have an impact next week — we learned to never say — but so far there are no signs of an increase.”

However, the boom and others warned of complacency and urged people not to abandon the social distance action that regained the area from dangerous coronavirus levels in June and July. They mention a surge in new incidents in Europe, where the government is struggling to contain it without resorting to a spring blockade.

Of course, the number of Houston areas is still too high, well above pre-summer soaring levels. Dr. Umair Shah of the Harris County Public Health Service said the decline in numbers made it easier to find hotspots in the county, but that number needs to continue to decline before contact tracking is most effective. Said. Contact tracking seeks to thwart the chain of outbreaks by identifying and isolating those who come into contact with infected people.

Autumn and winter present more challenges. First, the coronavirus is better transmitted in cool, dry climates. Businesses will also be even more crowded as Governor Greg Abbott continues to relax the maximum number of guests. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, resuming face-to-face education exposes millions of people to previously quarantined viruses.

“Schools will be the biggest challenge,” said Bill McKeon, president of the Texas Medical Center. “We know that children are the major carriers of the virus. That’s why they are safe for everyone when they come back, even if they don’t cause serious illness. You need to advance the case to the level. “

Dr. Paul Clotman, President of Baylor College of Medicine, agreed that school safety is a top priority. “I hope we can reopen school before we reopen the bar,” he said.

Early return from school after resuming classes did not show widespread outbreaks and no increase in cases was reported at Children’s Hospital.

According to Houston scientists, based on the current prevalence of the new coronavirus, the number of cases should decrease significantly by the time HISD resumes on October 19. The public health goal for opening a school is 200 cases a day, a rate at which contact tracing is not easily defeated.

The number of cases in the Houston area was 725 on Thursday, compared to last week’s daily average of 838. The current 7-day moving average is 535.

Despite Labor Day weekends, COVID-19 indicators in other areas remain favorable, according to the Texas Medical Center dashboard.

The viral reproductive value (Rt), which measures whether the disease epidemic is increasing or decreasing, was 0.70 on Thursday, down from 1.5 from June to mid-July. This number shows the average number of people infected with the virus by each infected individual. If it exceeds 1, the spread will widen. Less than 1 means it is decreasing. Since the beginning of August, that number has been almost below one.

The 7-day average COVID-19 test positive rate was 3.4, consistent with last week’s daily average.

Medical center hospitals admitted 80 new COVID-19 patients on Thursday, down from an average of 92 hospitalizations per day last week.

“The Houston people seem to follow the guidelines — they wore masks and kept the right distance,” said Dr. Chris Amos, Baylor’s biostatistician. “Now we need to keep it.”

However, José-Miguel Yamal, a biostatistician and data scientist at the UT Health School of Public Health in Houston, said that while the number of cases has not yet increased, there are still cases related to Labor Day involving young people infected during the holidays. I pointed out that it could happen. Give it to the elderly after the weekend.

At Texas Children’s Hospital, the demand for testing is the only COVID-19 surge since some schools began resuming face-to-face lessons, said Dr. Brent Kazini, ER Medical Director of the hospital. This is expected, as schools usually require such tests before sick children return to class, he said.

According to Kajiny, such tests have increased by about 50% on Texas Children’s Lenses in recent weeks. He said the actual number of cases has not increased and hospital test positive rates remain low.

Darrell Pile, CEO of the SouthEast Texas Regional Advisory Council, said all five hospitals in the Houston area providing care for pediatric patients reported no change in COVID-19 hospitalizations. These hospitals provide care to 29 children, including 9 who are receiving intensive care. So far, the number of inpatients in September has increased from 19 inpatients and 3 intensive care units to 46 and 13 respectively.

“The data looks good,” said Baylor’s Clotman. “If people can keep it for another 3-6 months-wear a mask, avoid the crowd-and get the vaccine, we’re okay.”

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