Only 10% of adults in the United States may have COVID-19 antibody: study

Using data from a US dialysis center, a study published at The Lancet estimates that less than 10% of adults in the US have viral antibodies. That is, everyone else can be vulnerable to infection.

These numbers are in close agreement with future Centers for Disease Control and Prevention studies, according to CDC director Dr. Robert Redfield, who spoke at a Senate hearing on Wednesday.

“Preliminary results from the first round show that most of our country, more than 90% of our population, is still vulnerable,” Redfield said to better track the spread of the virus. Ongoing CDC expansion to assess the prevalence of antibodies.

Redfield added that CDC data from that study is expected to be published “next week or so.”

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Lancet’s study provides new details on the prevalence of COVID-19. Researchers at Stanford University surveyed 28,503 US patients undergoing dialysis in July 2020 and found that 8% of sampled patients had COVID-19 antibody-general. 9.3% when standardized for typical American adults.

This study raises questions about “herd immunity.” The idea is that if a large enough population becomes immune, the virus can die. One major problem, according to experts, is that they do not fully understand how immunity to COVID-19 develops and the antibody is adequately protected from reinfection.

“What we know about antibodies is that things are a little tricky,” said Dr. Jay Bat, a contributor to ABC News and former Chief Medical Officer of the American Hospital Association. .. “People do not have a uniformly consistent or strong antibody response, so the question is,” Is it possible or impossible to achieve swarm immunity with this particular virus? ” “

“This is another data point that helps reinforce the fact that there are quite a few people in this country who are not infected with the virus,” Bat added. “This study suggests that there is a long way to go to reach the type of immunity needed to pass the virus.”

Unlike many other studies, this study targets dialysis patients who have already undergone regular monthly clinical tests. This enables better and more reliable data collection.

Dialysis purifies the blood of patients with end-stage renal disease. Because dialysis patients come from a variety of backgrounds, ethnicities, and socioeconomic status, the researchers said the group studied was a valid approximation for the rest of the country.

John Brownstein, a contributor to ABC News and an epidemiologist at Boston Children’s Hospital, said the results of this study are taken with a grain of salt, as dialysis patients do not necessarily represent the general population. Said it should be.

Dialysis patients are less likely to be hired, and many may be exposed to COVID-19 at a lower rate due to mobility problems, which means that the actual number of people with antibodies is underestimated. It means that it is being evaluated. Or, conversely, due to chronic underlying health problems, people on dialysis may be more susceptible to the virus. In other words, the number of people with antibodies is overestimated.

Patients with end-stage renal disease and patients with severe COVID-19 share some common risk factors. People who are older, have a higher incidence of high blood pressure and diabetes, and are colored are overly affected by both. This adds additional insight to the findings.

“It’s important to understand the level of vulnerability of some of the people most affected by the virus,” Brownstein said. “And understanding where they are in terms of immunity or potential immunity is valuable information.”

Leah Croll, MD, a neurology department belonging to NYU Langone Health, has contributed to the ABC News Medical Unit.