Can you predict the next global pandemic?

Viruses that jump from animals to humans Numerous outbreaks, From Ebola to Zika. Given the Similarity of SARS-CoV-2 For the coronavirus found in bats, this was probably also the beginning of COVID-19.

The virus has been transmitted from animals to humans throughout history. However, the factors that influence the geographic origin of these events, while very important, are not very clear. Knowing where they occur helps to understand the factors behind transviral species, especially by examining the characteristics of the viruses that circulate within the ecosystem in which the jumps occur.

However, it can be difficult to determine the origin of the virus. Due to the constant and widespread movement of humans, the first illness can be hundreds of miles, if not thousands of miles, from where the infection began. With this in mind, where are the viruses that could cause the next epidemic?

Viruses generally appear at the intersection of humans and animals that carry the virus. Repeated interactions between humans, these animals or insects, and the wider environment in which the virus circulates increase the chances of jumping across species. These jumps are considered rare and can occur due to certain unpredictable situations.

Humans are constantly exposed to viruses. Most of these exposures lead to “dead end infections” where the virus is not transmitted. However, the virus can replicate and infect new hosts, or, in the case of vector-mediated infections, insects that establish a new and functional infection cycle.

This is happening all over the world, but recent headline epidemics give the impression that the virus appears in more places than elsewhere. In particular, the severity of outbreaks, such as SARS in Asia and Ebola in Africa, seems to be the only place where these have occurred. This is not the case.

For example Schmallenberg virusIt mainly infects livestock and causes spontaneous abortion in infected animals, but recently occurred in Europe. And I don’t hear much about viruses that emerge from South America, but they do happen. of Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus And that Mayaro virus It has repeatedly caused outbreaks in South America and Central America. These diseases are less well known simply because they have not spread beyond the Americas.

Another factor that has not attracted the attention of the Mayaro virus is that it has symptoms that are very similar to the disease caused by another virus (chikungunya). It is also often misdiagnosed as dengue fever. The true number of Mayaro cases has not been reported..

This represents a broader issue. That is, most viruses initially cause very similar symptoms. In areas where dengue and malaria are endemic, most viral diseases result from these infections, obscuring the emergence of the virus until it becomes a common virus. More effective and quick diagnosis Before we have the opportunity to move on to a new transmission cycle, we need to help identify these types of new diseases.

People who are close to the place where the virus is endemic do not always show evidence that the virus is present. Regular exposure to the virus may not show symptoms of the infection. Only after moving to an unexposed population can cases occur that are sufficient to identify the virus. In today’s highly connected world, this is In the middle of the earth..

What if it’s really impractical to just look at the map to determine where the next epidemic will begin? Well, a better way is to try and understand the unique transmission cycle of the virus. In other words, look at the animals and environments that the virus replicates without causing human illness, and work the other way around.

Knowing which virus is already present in an animal can help track the cause of human disease when a new outbreak occurs. This knowledge is important for understanding the potential risks in different parts of the world. It also helps identify factors that increase the likelihood that the virus will invade humans.

For example, in SARS-CoV-2 Previous research Helped identify these animals as probable sources of development during the transmission cycle of the Chinese bat coronavirus. This makes it possible to investigate bats that are frequently involved in the transmission of the virus.

that is Coronavirus adaptation To bats Increase the possibility Being able to jump to other mammalian species, including humans. Similarly, it is Bat physiology They are excellent virus carriers. However, in other recent studies, the virus appears more commonly in bats. Numerous bat seeds, The bat itself is not an exceptional host.

Our understanding of viral species present in bats and other species is just the beginning. In fact, studies that help track the origin of SARS-CoV-2 Chinese bats Recently stopped. If you are serious about predicting what the next dangerous virus is and where it comes from, you need to end this kind of work rather than extend it.