Health
Northwell: New tools help hospitals predict COVID-19 outbreaks
A new software tool developed by Northwell Health helps hospital networks mine data to predict the outbreak of COVID-19 weeks before it occurs.
A two-week advance warning system was created this summer by the Customer Insights Group in collaboration with information technology and clinical teams following the surge in COVID-19 that hit New York’s largest healthcare system last spring. it was done.
The new Digital Predictor collects 15 indicators and feeds them into machine learning algorithms to recognize patterns of website traffic, from emergency department latency searches to doctor page clicks. The result is a two-week rolling forecast that closely reflects the case load so far.
New Hyde Park-based Northwell said predicting a surge in COVID-19 would help prepare staffing, equipment, and patient handling.
Dr. Eric Kruzen, Chief Medical Informatics Officer of Northwell Health’s Emergency Medical Services Line and Chairman of the Emergency Department at Lennox Health Greenwich Village in Manhattan, said: “If the alarm bell starts ringing, pay attention.”
Northwell, the state’s largest healthcare system, treated approximately 85,000 patients, including 16,000 inpatients, between March and Labor Day.
Encouraging news: Predictors “at this point, looking two weeks ahead, everything seems to be stable,” said Northwell Health’s Corporate Director of Marketing and Consumer Insight Analysis. Said Paul Ramson.
Northwell has reported 65-95 COVID-19 patients in hospitals over the past 6 weeks.
Northwell’s forecast model includes website traffic (more than 20 million page views from the first week of March), 19 hospitals in Long Island, New York City, and Westchester, 800 outpatient facilities, and 52 emergency care. We are investigating the geographical concentration of the center. .. That number has been confirmed and is closely related to the number of cases found throughout the system.
“We used all sorts of data and algorithms to see what had the predicted values,” Ramson said. “I found nuances. For example, I saw people move from a doctor’s profile to a waiting time. If they really needed care, they searched for hospital information more.”
According to Ramson, the data itself is exclusive and will not be made publicly available.
Predictors are one of many datasets that healthcare systems use to prepare for an increase in COVID-19, Cruzen said.
“I’m most worried about the increased symptoms of viral syndrome in the emergency department, from fever to hypoxic levels,” Kruzen said. “These numbers are available in real time. We also pay attention to laboratory tests. And because the healthcare system is so large, we can draw real conclusions from the data. We need to be proactive. “
Northwell said it plans to provide the source code for the prediction tool to other healthcare systems.
“Because it’s labor-intensive, it may not be easy for the healthcare system to make it work on their website,” Ramson said. “But show everyone what we’ve done and they can see if it works with their data.”
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