Deputy Chief Medical Officer Professor Jonathan Vantam’s editorial

The national battle with Covid-19 is at a turning point similar to March. But if we all act now, we can prevent history from repeating.

An estimated 224,000 people are infected with the virus, according to ONS data. Covid-19 admissions have increased again from 116,000 last week, as well as admissions to the intensive care unit. The epidemic has resumed in the young adult age group in the past few weeks, but there is clear evidence that it is gradually spreading to the older age group in the worst affected areas. Sadly, the increase in deaths will continue in the next few weeks, much like the night will be the next day. Fortunately, children are usually not adversely affected by this virus, so we are much more confident.

The UK R is 1.2-1.5. Broadly speaking, this means that for each case, multiple new cases will be generated through future infections. As a result, the epidemic is even greater. The R for all NHS regions in England is well above 1.0. This suggests that infections continue to increase significantly not only in northern England, but throughout the country. Scientists estimate that the doubling time for new infections in the UK is 8 to 16 days, even faster in some areas.

SAGE makes it clear that we need to act now.

The NHS winter has always been a difficult time, so in the first wave our strategy was to “contain, delay, investigate and mitigate” to push the first wave into the spring. This time it is different because we are now in the colder and darker winter months. We are in the midst of a serious pandemic and the seasons are against us. Basically, we are facing headwinds.

The NHS supports itself and they do what they always do. It’s about taking off your socks to help as many people as possible. But we need to be realistic-they can’t do much. We all provide as many non-urgent tests, checks, and treatments as possible by helping hard-working NHS staff continue to care for everyone who needs it urgently and stop the growing trend of infection. I have to help you.

People point out that we should not lose sight of the indirect harm of Covid-19. They are absolutely right. We need to keep selective surgery and non-urgent services as open as possible. Cancer treatment and diagnostic services need to be continued. And we need to continue to provide mental health services. And the important thing is that people need to move their care forward when they need it. At the first peak, we know that the fear of the virus has put off doing so for many.

The best way to do this is to reduce the number of Covid-19 cases. If the number of incidents increases dramatically, the NHS needs to focus more on dealing with life-threatening situations in front of them. This may mean freeing up staff and space by postponing other non-urgent procedures or treatments. We need to help the NHS by keeping the number of Covid-19s low. And now the NHS is there for us, our family, and our loved ones.

The principles of how to keep infections low have not changed. Best of all, if you have Covid-19 symptoms, you should self-quarantine and take the test according to the published guidance. Always wash your hands regularly, cover your face in a confined space, and follow the rules of social distance of 2 meters, even when you are in good physical condition. Keeping your contacts low reduces the chances of the virus spreading. This is very difficult, but it is a disappointing scientific fact that the virus propagates through social contact between humans.

What I want to give is that in February and March of this year we had the level of data, tests, and medical insights we now have. We now have significantly improved testing capabilities, know more about where the disease is, and have better treatments.

Earlier that year, we were fighting a semi-invisible disease with little knowledge, and it sowed the community at a very fast rate. Now you know where it is and how to tackle it. Take this opportunity to prevent history from repeating.