Kentucky’s COVID-19 mortality rate is declining, but health experts warn that danger remains | News

Louisville, Kentucky-Since mid-May, COVID-19 mortality in Kentucky has fallen by about 64%. This means that the percentage of people who die after a positive virus test has decreased by about two-thirds.

In mid-May, one Kentucky died in every 22 cases. Currently, one person is killed in every 63 infections in the state.

“Many things are improving,” state health commissioner Dr. Stephen Stack said at a press conference Wednesday.

Dr. Paul Schulz, an infectious disease specialist and system epidemiologist at Norton Healthcare, said that the percentage of infected people dying for reasons such as early detection and better treatment is low, and that young people have a high percentage of cases. The chances of dying are much lower.

“If young and healthy people are infected, mortality will be lower,” he said. “If it occurs in older people with many comorbidities, mortality will increase.”

Prior to June, more than 17% of cases were detected in people over the age of 70, according to state data. It has been less than 11% since early June. On the other hand, before June, less than 38% of cases were under 40 years old. Since early June, more than half of cases have been detected in people under the age of 40.

Think of an open restaurant and go back to your office or college party.

At its peak, the state is currently testing more than 20,000 people, but the state was only able to test 30 people a day, so it was happy early on, Stack said. More tests mean that the state is finding more cases among people who have no symptoms, do not need to go to the hospital, and do not die.

And young Kentuckies essentially never die of COVID-19:

• Since the outbreak of the pandemic, Kentucky has recorded 36,232 infections in people under the age of 40. Eight of these people have died. That is, about 1 person will die for every 4,529 infections of that age group.
• A Kentucky citizen between the ages of 20 and 29 died of more than 14,000 infectious diseases.
• And of the more than 8,000 infectious diseases between the ages of 10 and 19, none died.

State data also show improved survival among the oldest Kentucky citizens. Prior to June, people in their eighties in Kentucky who tested positive were one-quarter likely to die of the disease. Since early June, their risk of death has been reduced to one in eight.

With more tests, Schultz said the tests helped because the state could detect the infection before symptoms appeared.

“It also allows us to provide care more quickly to the most vulnerable people,” he told WDRB News by email.

According to Schultz, medical professionals are good at treating the disease.

“Hospitals are now generally more familiar with COVID-19 than in March,” he said. “Norton Healthcare now has access to clinical trials that weren’t there in the early days.”

Recent, more positive data also do not make national and local mortality projections much more stringent. Just a month ago, the Institute for Health Metrics at the University of Washington predicted more than 415,000 deaths nationwide by January 1. The model currently predicts just over 363,000 deaths.

In the case of Kentucky, the IHME model recorded even greater improvements. Just a month ago, the institute predicted that Kentucky would kill more than 4,000 people by January 1. IHME currently predicts less than 2,600 deaths.

Questions and dangers remain

Although Stack has established in the scientific community that masks prevent infection, some doctors believe that masks can reduce the risk of severe cases if infected. , It’s not clear yet.

Some medical professionals say the virus may be less lethal, but Schultz said, “I don’t know at this point.”

However, in Kentucky, at least fewer people who test positive have died of the disease.

The state-wide mortality rate for COVID-19 is currently less than 1.6%, down from nearly 4.5% in mid-May. In addition, the tax rate in Kentucky is well below 2.7% in Indiana and 3.4% in Ohio.

These differences may seem small, but in tens of thousands of cases they have a big impact. For example, Ohio has about twice as many infectious diseases as Kentucky, but more than four times as many deaths.

In Ohio, one person dies for every 31 infections. In Kentucky, it’s one in 63 people.

Governor Andy Beshear said at a COVID-19 press conference Thursday that he believed that many groups deserved praise for Kentucky’s outstanding achievements.

The hospital system is doing a “amazing job” and the state clearly tells when people need to be tested and when they need care.

Beshear also acknowledged his father, former Governor Steve Beshear, for expanding Medicaid in 2013 and provided health insurance to an additional 450,000 Kentucky citizens. Improved access to care has saved “thousands” of lives, according to Andy Bashir.

Stack said the overall mortality rate for COVID-19 is unknown for some time, but health experts predict that mortality rates will be between 0.7% and 1.5%.

It may not sound that high, but the stack said the rate was still “alert” because the virus remained on average about 10 times more lethal than the flu.

During the flu season of 2019/2020, 38.2 million people in the United States became ill and nearly 22,000 died. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.. This year, COVID-19 has already killed more than 210,000 people. Without the measures taken by the country to curb the spread of the disease, the death toll would be significantly higher.

State data also show that for people under the age of 50, COVID-19 is about five times more lethal than influenza. The influenza mortality rate for people under the age of 50 in the United States is 0.01%. In Kentucky, the COVID-19 mortality rate for the same population has been 0.05% since early June. In other words, people under the age of 50 have a 99.99% chance of surviving the flu and a 99.95% chance of surviving COVID-19.

These numbers may suggest that Kentucky needs to relax pandemic restrictions, but mortality rates for people over the age of 50 are not.

According to state and CDC data, COVID-19 is about 19 times more deadly than influenza for people over the age of 50.

Nearly 28 million people under the age of 50 became ill during the 2019/20 flu season, but only 3,103 died. In the same season, about 10.4 million people over the age of 50 got the flu and about 19,000 died.

If the flu was as deadly as COVID-19, for people under the age of 50, 28 million infections would have caused about 14,000 deaths, about 11,200 more than those who died from the flu.

However, for people over the age of 50, 10.4 million COVID-19 infections will result in 361,000 deaths.

If it still sounds benign compared to the initial pandemic predictions, consider that the 361,000 deaths calculation is based on Kentucky’s mortality rate over the age of 50 since early June. A flu-like pandemic that infects 10 million people over the age of 50 with pre-June mortality in Kentucky kills nearly one million.

And those calculations exclude those who survive the disease but deal with long-term complications, many of which may not yet be known.

Stack said on Wednesday that while much has improved, even the current COVID-19 mortality and hospitalization rates could easily destroy the state’s health system and morgue. ..

“I’ve done this calculation before. For 1.5 million people, one-third get sick in a year, and if 1% die, 15,000 die,” he said. It was.

“And if you’ve been in the hospital five times, that’s 75,000 hospitalizations, with an average length of stay of at least five days.

“It will overwhelm the hospital,” Stack said.

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