There are over 7 million cases of coronavirus in India, but mortality remains strangely low.

India has more than 7 million COVID-19 infections, the second highest in the country after the United States, but its low mortality rate continues to confuse experts and is viral from the young population to other endemic diseases. There are various explanations up to immunity due to disease. -report.

India said on Sunday that there have been 108,334 deaths from the coronavirus since the first death was reported in mid-March.

According to Johns Hopkins University, the second most populous country in the world has the lowest number of deaths per 100 confirmed cases (observed case fatality rate) and the top 20 most affected countries. It is 1.5% in.

By comparison, the United States, the most infected country, has a mortality rate of 2.8 percent. India’s death toll per 100,000 population is 7.73, compared to 64.74 in the United States.

There are many possible reasons for this.

Young population

According to the United Nations World Population Outlook Report, older people suffering from conditions such as diabetes and heart disease are specific targets for pandemics, but India has a young population with a median age of 28.4 years.

In comparison, France reports about 700,000 cases and more than 32,000 deaths with a mortality rate of 4.7%, with a median age of 42.3 years.

Late start, strict blockade

According to the Government of India, the first infection was detected on 30 January and exceeded 100 cases in mid-March.

By that time, the epidemic was already rampant throughout Europe. Italy reported more than 24,000 infections and about 2,000 deaths, while France recorded about 5,500 cases and about 150 deaths.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi ordered a national blockade from March 25, severely restricting movement. It gave India time to prepare for a pandemic, but experts say a strict blockade may have helped doctors learn from experiences in other countries.

“Many treatment protocols, whether oxygen or ICU, are much more stable (at that time),” Ananda Krishnan, a professor of community medicine at the All India Institute of Medical Science in New Delhi, told AFP. I was doing it. “

Possible immunity

Virologist T. Jacob John and other experts told AFP that other viral illnesses, such as dengue fever, that are prevalent in India may have provided the population with antibody protection against the coronavirus.

Some say it is plausible that exposure to other milder coronaviruses can give some cross-immunity. However, all experts say that further research is needed on this line of defense.

India does not already count all the dead. This problem is more serious in rural areas where 70% of the population lives. If the person is not in the hospital, many local deaths will not be recorded.

This was emphasized during the coronavirus. In many cities, aggregates at city governments, graveyards, and crematoriums do not match. Activists have blamed several states for deliberately blaming other conditions for death from COVID-19.

“Our poor day-to-day death monitoring system … misses many deaths in the first place,” Bangalore-based community health expert Hemant Shewade told AFP. He said it was recorded due to only one in five deaths.

Shewade, who is analyzing official Indian tariff data, said many suspected COVID-19 deaths were unrecorded.

Serological studies conducted by the government (estimating the number of people who fought the virus with blood tests for antibodies) show that 10 times the official number may already be infected, many Means that the death toll may not have been reported.

On the other hand, the coronavirus may not be listed as the cause of death in patients with other medical conditions.

How to improve accuracy

Experts say that higher toll accuracy is possible if there are more tests and better records of death and post-mortem tests are done on suspicious victims.

Monitoring over-mortality (above the “normal” number) and deaths at home can also shed some light on the actual victims, Shewade said.

In Mumbai, the country’s most devastated city, an excess of 13,000 deaths were found between March and July compared to the same period last year. This is twice the number of viral deaths reported at the time.

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