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Invading the United States with coronavirus is extremely dangerous




THEn October 13 White House Verified What it accepts Los Angeles Times Editorial board call Strategy to “kill people” in the face of COVID-19 Pandemic.. This strategy involves deliberately invading a new coronavirus outbreak while trying to protect the most vulnerable people, such as the elderly and those with existing health conditions.

This approach, Roundly rejected And at the heart of a controversial new statement titled Lost by Scientists Around the World Great Barrington DeclarationWritten by three scholars, Jay Bhattacharya, Martin Kuldorff, and Sunetra Gupta, who have views far beyond the mainstream of science.High-ranking officials of the Trump administration Was told Include New York Times The White House approves the declaration.

Bhattacharya, Kuldorff, and Gupta want to see more people infected SARS– –CoV– –2, A virus that causes COVID-19. They are immune and society “if enough people can be infected and survive.Herd immunityFrom a natural infection. In other words, enough of us seem to be so immune that the virus cannot spread throughout the community. They want most Americans to stop worrying about getting infected and quickly return to normal life, trying to protect the most vulnerable people from getting infected. Return to offices, schools, colleges, colleges, sports stadiums, concert halls and restaurants.

From a public health and ethical point of view, the fact that the Great Barrington Declaration is now the official policy of the Trump administration is very annoying. Declaration, To tell Greg Gonzalves, an epidemiologist at Yale University, “shocked and disappointed the vast majority of people working in public health and clinical medicine.”

In the first place, the pandemic has never been suppressed by deliberately spreading the infection without suppressing it, hoping that people will acquire immunity.We have to do as much as we can Protect People with COVID-19 buy time to develop vaccines and treatments for scientists to end the outbreak and relieve suffering without infection.

scientist Quote The majority of the population, more than 50%, needs to have immunity to reach herd immunity against COVID-19. Let’s be clear. The only way to achieve this without the enormous cost of illness and death is to vaccinate with the safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine. It cannot be reached by natural infection and recovery. Too many people will die or become disabled. Hospitals, clinics and morgues will be overwhelming. And even if some people develop immunity, it’s probably temporary, and a wave of death and illness will continue.The· experience The city of Manaus, Brazil, has shown virus damage if the virus remains unchecked. 66% of the city was infected and 1 in 500 died of COVID-19.

A recent study from Stanford University 9% A percentage of the US population has antibodies to the new coronavirus.Basic math shows around it 156 million More Americans need to be infected to reach the 50% threshold of herd immunity from natural infections. Now that we’ve seen the devastation caused by 7.7 million cases, imagine the impact of another 156 million cases.

The authors of the Great Barrington Declaration argue that most of us don’t have to worry about this kind of wildly uncontrolled transmission — even Gupta. I believe People under the age of 65 don’t have to worry. This is a very dangerous claim.Spreading the virus to young adults is inevitable Lead For infectious diseases and death in the elderly. Strategies to obtain herd immunity from natural infections will lead to large deaths. Estimates suggest that the results may be somewhere in between. One million To 2.5 million Dead American. The US healthcare system will succumb to the weight of numerous hospitalizations and ICU admissions.When the virus pushes the healthcare system to the limit, services for diseases such as cancer, diabetes and heart disease Confused, Can lead to increased deaths from these other conditions. And among those who survived the infection the study It suggests that 10% of people of all ages can develop a long-term illness called Long-COVID, It seems to affect the lungs, heart, brain, joints and can be very debilitating.

Allowing millions of Americans to become infected with COVID-19 would also have a devastating impact on the US economy. If the population is sick, the economy is not healthy.Assuming the virus only affects health until the fall of 2021, the COVID-19 crisis will hurt the US economy $ 16 trillion, Herd immunity strategies make this cost much higher.

Therefore, the Great Barrington Declaration Strategy creates a heavy burden of death and disability and further harms the US economy, but there is no guarantee that it will lead to herd immunity. It is not clear whether recovery from infection with the new coronavirus will lead to long-term, persistent immunity.

There is an installation evidence The level of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 decreases shortly after infection.Also, from a small number of case reports, the virus Can reinfect people Who was Previously infected..I don’t know how common such reinfections are, but perhaps it turns out to be rare, but still the famous Yale immunologist Akiko Iwasaki. To tell “The case of reinfection tells us that we cannot rely on the immunity obtained by natural infection to provide herd immunity. This strategy is not only fatal to many, but also fatal. It’s not effective either. “

And what about the idea of ​​”protecting vulnerabilities”? This is impossible and inhumane.

Proponents of the shield approach have not pinpointed exactly who the “vulnerability” means. Let’s assume that the vulnerable are those who are at high risk of being infected with SARS-CoV-2 or who are at high risk of dying if infected. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 40% or more Many Americans are at high risk of infection due to their pre-existing medical conditions and need to protect all of these people. In addition, all colored races, all disabled people, and all elderly people should be quarantined. What kind of society is thinking of trapping tens of millions of vulnerable people for months or years?

Aside from questionable morals, shields are not even an effective approach to prevent the emergence of vulnerable people.Swedish Experiment Attempting to build herd immunity through natural infections while trying to protect the elderly in nursing homes was a catastrophic least Half of COVID-19 deaths in Sweden At a nursing home, the country has one of the highest mortality rates in the world, 7.1% The population has antibodies. In reality, vulnerable people, including the elderly, cannot and should not be walled by other societies. For example, many elders live with their children and grandchildren. Bhattacharya when prompted to explain how shields are achieved in such multi-generational households I had a hard time answer.

In response to the Recent rise In the new everyday case of the United States, now Intensified Scientifically proven measures to control the infection of the virus so that it does not tear.In a medical journal Lancet, I joined an international team of public health experts, Scientific consensus About the actions that all countries need to take. “Controlling the spread of COVID-19 to the community is the best way to protect our society and economy until safe and effective vaccines and treatments arrive within the next few months. “We say.

You can look at many of the Pacific Rim countries, including China, New Zealand, Taiwan and Vietnam. collect There are less than 1,000 new infections per day compared to 55,000 per day in the United States.. Find out what a multifaceted and comprehensive management strategy involves. Extensive testing should be used to identify cases and isolate infected individuals. You need to track your contacts and quarantine what you expose. You need to promote every tool to protect your personality, such as face masks, distances, avoidance of crowds and poorly ventilated indoor spaces. We also need to provide financial, community and social support to those affected by the pandemic. This includes those who have lost their jobs and those who have been quarantined for isolation after infection or exposure.

Many countries in the East Asia-Pacific region have been able to return to their normal lives by controlling the virus in this way. In contrast, here in the United States, the Trump administration’s acceptance of herd immunity from natural infections indicates that it threw a towel and admitted defeat.

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