The new coronavirus is expected to spread rapidly in Los Angeles County, with an increasing proportion of new cases in the coming weeks, officials said.
The rise comes as Los Angeles and other counties in California have resumed their economies over the past few weeks. Authorities want to avoid repeated COVID-19 spikes this summer, forcing them to impose new restrictions on businesses and public spaces.
Public health director Barbara Ferrer said Wednesday that the increase in infectious diseases was primarily related to workplace outbreaks, as more companies reopened in Los Angeles County in the past two weeks.
39 workplace outbreaks have been reported in the county from September 20th to October 4th. This is a 70% increase from the 23 outbreaks reported last week.
“This is a source of concern and we will continue to monitor what is happening in the workplace,” Feller said.
Most companies comply with the COVID-19 safety protocol, but according to Feller, the county publishes more than 130 citations primarily to fitness centers and places of worship.
Personal gatherings also contribute significantly to the increase in infections.
The entire. According to a new modeling of LA County Health Services, the county’s predicted COVID-19 infection rate exceeded 1 to 1.05. A percentage of 1 means that an individual with COVID-19 will infect the other one on average. If it exceeds 1, new cases are expected to increase. Three weeks ago, the transmission speed was greater than 1 and then slowed down. The downward trend has reversed, with authorities estimating that one in 650 people is now infected with the virus, compared to one in 950 last week.
Similarly, the daily aggregation of new cases is increasing, which may be due to the count backlog. The number has recently dropped to less than 1,000 before rising to 1,349 new infections on Wednesday.
“The number of cases is likely to increase rather than decrease,” Dr. Christina Garry, director of healthcare services, said at a press conference Wednesday.
Personal gatherings also contribute significantly to the increase in infections.
Such rallies were prohibited by state regulations. Last Friday, state officials relaxed these restrictions and allowed private parties of up to three households outdoors. Feller said the county would be a “slippery slope” and would adopt state guidelines, acknowledging that personal gatherings should be conservative.
“It was intended to deal with the limited number of times people might need to get together,” she said, and added that it is unwise to mix regularly with a wide range of people. I did.
Large-scale rallies remain banned under state orders, except for outdoor protests and outdoor worship.
Predicted permeability numbers are especially important for health authorities seeking to ensure that they have sufficient beds.
There are 720 COVID-19 patients in the county, 27% of whom are in the intensive care unit. This is well below the July peak of over 2,000.
However, hospitalization is delayed because it takes time from infection to serious illness. As the number of infections increases, so does the need for hospital beds.
State records The least number of hospitalizations In 6 months on Monday. However, the state-wide surge is projected over the coming weeks, including Los Angeles County, as some newly infected patients will become ill.
An analysis of data from the Los Angeles Times’ daily coronavirus tracker showed that across the state, the number of new cases on Tuesday was 4,383, the highest since September 25, when 4,122 cases were recorded. These trends can also be affected by counting delays.
Following the surge in the summer after the Memorial Service for War Dead, there was a significant decline. Recently, there has been a slight rise in some parts of the state.
Shasta County, which recently retreated to the lower layers of the state’s reopening matrix, recorded 254 cases on Tuesday. Similarly, Riverside County has recorded 729 cases and is at risk of returning to the tier.
The daily number of cases in California is much lower than during the summer when tens of thousands of new infections were reported for days.
In the state as a whole, the 7-day average of coronavirus-positive cases was 3.4%, a significant decrease from the previous month. But in this pandemic, progress can be momentary.
As more counties move to less restrictive tiers and more businesses can reopen, people can become more active and cause a resurgence.
“There is no reason to think that there is no ongoing infection,” he said. Dr. George Rutherford, An epidemiologist and infectious disease expert at the University of California, San Francisco.
California has been doing well in recent weeks compared to other states approaching a new wave of coronavirus, primarily due to its widespread resumption. University campus.. However, authorities have warned residents to remain vigilant.
“It’s not the time to be happy,” Ferrer said.
Times staff writer Iris Lee contributed to this report.
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