Recently, an international group of scientists achieved herd immunity from Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) by opening up communities and businesses while protecting vulnerable people with “focused protection”. Signed a declaration advocating to do. The declaration states: A range of measures can be implemented, including an approach to multi-generational households, within the scope and capabilities of public health professionals. But to be honest, I don’t know how this can be done.
Currently, the United States is experiencing a third peak of infection in our first wave, and case metrics and test positive rates are increasing. Hospitalization is also increasing in many states. Nationally, mortality, an indicator of delay, is stable, but these are expected to increase in the coming weeks. Hopefully, recent advances in medicine will mitigate this outbreak.
For infectious disease preventive physicians and front-line healthcare professionals, the Great Barrington Declaration endangers their lives and livelihoods.Field hospital has been activated Wisconsin The state runs the risk of running out of hospital beds and trained staff.Similar concerns Iowa And North Dakota.. In many other states, COVID-19 is skyrocketing as the cold climate approaches.
Everyone agrees that case fatality rates will skyrocket if the healthcare system goes too far and requires the use of field hospitals and inexperienced staff.
The false story of herd immunity: New York Times Two signatures, including one of the leading authors, suggested that “if 10-20% of the population is infected, society may achieve herd immunity. Virus.. “
However, most epidemiologists agree that the proportion of the population required for herd immunity is much higher. SARS-CoV-2 has not been mitigated. R0 of 5.7That is, on average, one infected patient will spread the disease to 5.7 other individuals. At this rate of infection, 80% of the population must be infected before herd immunity begins to take effect.
If you don’t believe SARS-CoV-2 is less infectious, check out the recent Superspreader event at the White House Rose Garden. All were tested, but one test was probably a false positive and an infected asymptomatic individual attended the event. The event was held outdoors, but there was no mask or social distance. Over 200 people participated in the event.At least 3 white houses journalist And 11 Top White Houses Official There are infections related to the event. This virus is highly infectious.
And there is another big problem with the false story of herd immunity.
- First, persistent immunity is suspect. At least four studies have shown that neutralizing antibodies have a shorter duration in patients with SARS-CoV-2. The latest one is JAMA network Similar results to previous studies were reported, with 58% of individuals with antibodies at baseline 60 days..
- Second, the virus is constantly mutating.websitewww.nextstrain.orgIndicates a mutation in the SARS-CoV-2 virus. There are hundreds, but unfortunately some of them may be related to the viral spike proteins that underlie the effectiveness of immunity, vaccines, and monoclonal antibody therapy. Researchers at the Peking University Health Science Center have identified the virus with increased infectivity and 10 strains that are “partially significantly resistant.” Monoclonal antibody..
- Reinfections are beginning to be reported, but thankfully it still seems rare OccurrenceIn the two documented cases, viral RNA was available from both the first and second infections, demonstrating reinfection. Of concern is that the patient’s second infection was worse than the first, causing the potential for immunological enhancement of the disease. Of course, this can complicate vaccine development. The exact incidence of reinfection is unknown. What is known is that it can happen.
It is not possible to quarantine a person at significant risk: The 1918 influenza pandemic took more than two years and four waves to complete Burnout Syndrome, SARS-CoV-2 may have a similar time frame. How do you protect people who have been at risk for so long?Especially when about half of the United States is at risk Adult populationThis includes people over the age of 65, or obesity, type 2 diabetes, cancer, COPD, chronic kidney disease, or Heart condition..Obesity alone is found in over 40% of our health care population..But even people between the ages of 20 and 44 are at 20% risk Hospitalization..
Emphasizing mortality as the only concern for the SARS-CoV-2 virus: One of the goals of the declaration is to “minimize mortality.” Mortality decreased as knowledge of how to treat advanced illnesses increased. However, like other fatal illnesses, survival is often associated with permanent disability. Unlike influenza, SARS-C0V-2 affects all organs in the body.20% chance during hospitalization Heart injury..Even in asymptomatic young athletes, MRI scans are asymptomatic or Mild symptomatic treatment..
Symptoms can be long-lasting and can be permanent.Studies published in Clinical microbiology and infectious diseases We conducted a 2-month follow-up of non-essential COVID-19 adults. After 6 months, 30% were still short of breath, 40% were tired, and 23% had impaired odor and taste. Symptoms were most common in patients aged 40 to 60 years. Younger patients may be less likely to have symptoms, but with reduced lung and heart reserves, symptoms can occur decades later. There are also reports of an increasing number of long-haul carriers experiencing a myriad of persistent symptoms, where chronic fatigue is the most common.
Therefore, it is not only a concern for death, but also for long-term or delayed heart and lung diseases that have prevented professional athletes from competing.
Return to normal: The call to return to “old” normal ignores the changes that have taken place in both education and industry. Many companies, the latest is Microsoft, planning to offer telecommuting options, Hybrid program.. Workers’ production and satisfaction go up, and company costs go down. The same applies to online shopping and delivery. Before the pandemic, shoppers were rapidly switching online for both convenience and cost savings. COVID-19 has accelerated this trend, but it is unlikely to reverse. Returning to school can be made safer by social distance, masks, virus testing, and attention to air quality and disinfection. However, online education at home can be incorporated into the curriculum to facilitate independent learning. You can also reduce class attendance and get the attention of individual teachers by staggering attendance at school.
There is a lot of false information about this virus.Cornell University has its roots in 38% of media articles with incorrect information White HouseCarnegie Mellon University has found that much of the false information on Twitter can be traced back to bots similar to Chinese and Russian playbooks. Intelligence agency.. Asymptomatic people are unable to spread the virus, and there are even rumors that PCR tests overdiagnose SARS-CoV-2. It must not be different from the truth. Watch the White House Rose Garden event. This was a superspreader event that appeared to have been caused by an asymptomatic individual who had a false negative result on a rapid pre-event test. Therefore, there was an underdiagnosis rather than an overdiagnosis of the asymptomatic spreader.
In the United States, there is growing consensus on the recommendation not to carry out another blockade. South Korea did not close its economy, instead their strategy was to wear masks, social distance, hand hygiene, and extensive inspection and contact tracing. This public health strategy was widely accepted by their population and they stopped the spread of the virus. Following the example of South Korea, where the United States is a country of 51.6 million people, we would have lost less than 3,000 souls.
Use data on excess mortality AmericaAs of August 1, 2020, we can assure you that more than 200,000 lives have been unnecessarily lost as promising treatments are imminent.
Perhaps this virus becomes endemic and we need to adjust our lives to live as safely as possible. Some very religious people find this to be Mother Nature’s natural way of protecting the planet from human abuse. I’m not sure about that, but we are all convinced that we need to make sacrifices for each other. Take good care of each other by following proper public health advice on wearing masks, social distance and hand hygiene. Doing this gives you control over SARS-CoV-2 and can lead to defeat in some cases. Otherwise, they will incur unnecessary deaths and long-term disabilities that they have to endure for generations.
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