Health
Cases of coronavirus in the United States are growing at a rate not seen since July
19 days after the presidential election, there’s more in the US Confirmed COVID-19 cases and death More than any other country, cases are increasing at a rate not seen since the beginning of the summer peak.
According to USA TODAY’s data analysis compiled by Johns Hopkins University, current growth rates could set new case records in a week within the first few days of November. If the spread of the incident gains momentum, as seen in July, the United States can set a record in less than a week.
“I don’t think it’s out of the question,” said Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins. “There were about 50,000 new cases yesterday.” “It’s not crazy to think we’ll get there sooner than we all want.”
The United States added more than 366,400 cases last week. This is the number not seen since early August. That number was nearly 50,000 more than last week’s tally, and growth hasn’t been as fast since late June.
“We expect a significant increase towards the colder months, which could be the worst part of the epidemic in the United States, both in terms of new cases and deaths,” said Dr. Peter Hotez. Stated. Dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, Texas. “Vaccination early next year will improve our lives, but we will experience very difficult times.”
US Coronavirus Map:Tracking outbreaks
According to Johns Hopkins, there are approximately 8 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States, with more than 217,000 deaths.Pandemic Contacted all counties except three. Coronavirus-positive rates are increasing in the northwestern, midwestern, and other northern states. As of Tuesday evening, 14 states set new case records in a week, and four states recorded a record number of deaths in a week.
“This third resurgence started with a relatively high watermark. There are hotspots across the country, but it’s very worrisome because it’s hard to control,” Rivers said.
Cases are skyrocketing at a blazing pace throughout the Midwest. North Dakota reported cases at one-third the rate per capita of any state in the United States that experienced the worst spring or summer surge.
South Dakota and Montana are also above summer records, but Wisconsin is not. Data visualization at Johns Hopkins University by University of Illinois computer scientist Wade Fagen-Ulmschneider shows.
Epidemiologists are divided according to whether the surge constitutes the second “wave” or just the continuation of the first “wave”. New daily cases peaked in the spring of mid-April, averaging about 32,000 cases per day for 7 days.
After that, the number of cases began to decrease, but peaked again in mid-July, with an average of more than 67,000 new cases per day. The number of cases declined again, reaching a low in mid-September, with an average of more than 34,000 new cases per day.
Michael Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Diseases Research Policy and one of the leading epidemiologists in the United States, said the outbreak of the coronavirus was more like a wildfire than a “wave.” It was.
“It will continue to burn human trees there wherever it is found. If you do not extinguish it, those embers are there, and if you get rid of your oppressive activity, it will soon Go back. That’s what Europe is seeing right now, “he said. “When we take our feet off the brakes, we’ll see a wide range of transmissions everywhere.”
Investigation:Americans torn between taking a vacation and avoiding the coronavirus
According to Osterholm, the surge is caused by three main factors. People are returning to social activities because of pandemic fatigue. Young people returning to school are spreading the virus to more vulnerable people. And indoor transmissions are increasing due to the cool autumn weather driving people into the car.
Dr. Gregory Poland, director of the Mayo Clinic Vaccine Research Group, said “when there is no backtracking” when the country exceeds its testing capabilities, contact tracing feasibility, and healthcare system capabilities to meet rapidly growing demand. Warned about. Poland said the quality of health care would decline and mortality would rise.
“This is a very bad premonition of the incident we saw last week or two, and it’s foolish to wait until it’s blatantly revealed,” Poland said.
Although it is difficult to accurately predict when the next peak will occur, some epidemiologists have stated that the model can provide an incomplete guide. At the current rate New daily cases peak at the end of December. And Daily deaths peak in mid-January. According to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington. According to the model, national masking cuts the peak of predicted cases by half, but with relaxation of duty, it doubles.
President Donald Trump continues to demand vaccines by the November 3 election day, but experts said the timeline is unlikely.Vaccine dose approved by the Food and Drug Administration May ship by the end of the year or early 2021 Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said this week.
Mercedes Carneton, Vice-Chairman of Preventive Medicine at Northwestern University School of Medicine, recommended that people wear masks and stay socially distant from autumn to winter.
“At this point, we need to maintain this level of vigilance, which is very difficult during the holidays,” she said. “It’s really hard considering not seeing a family, but that chance can be a real bet-mostly Russian roulette.”
Contributed by: Mike Stucka, USA TODAY Network
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