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The history of the plague shows how the pandemic process is shaped

The history of the plague shows how the pandemic process is shaped

 


Researchers at McMaster University in Canada have searched for patterns about how plague spreads throughout the population over 300 years, including personal wills and wills, the Parish Register, and the London Death Chart. I analyzed a thousand documents.

Plague, one of the deadliest bacterial infections in human history, has killed an estimated 50 million people in medieval Europe, known as black death. The disease is rare and can now be treated with antibiotics, Still around today-cases are recorded in China And that America As recent as this year.

There was a “significant acceleration” in plague infection between the plague of 1348 and the plague of 1665, researchers said in a study published Monday in the National Academy of Sciences Bulletin.

David Earn, a professor of mathematics and statistics at McMaster University and lead author of the study, said plague cases in London doubled every six weeks in the 14th century, but every week by the 17th century. He told CNN that it had doubled. half.

“That’s a big difference,” he said.

But this wasn’t just the case when the disease became more pathogenic-evolutionary geneticist Hendrick Poiner said that while the spread of the disease has accelerated, previous genetic analysis may have reduced infectivity. It tentatively suggests that there is sex.

“When there is a change in the epidemiology of the disease, most of the changes that occur can be translated into what is happening outside of the actual genetics of human intervention or bugs,” McMaster’s Anthropology Poiner said. The professor says. Said the co-author of the study.

Researchers gathered information from personal wills, parishes, and death tables.

Epidemic estimates, coupled with what we know about plague biology, did not spread during these centuries, primarily through human-to-human contact, but instead early and late. The researchers suggested that epidemic growth rates were more consistent with bubonic plague transmitted by the bites of infected fleas.

Researchers say factors such as population density, living conditions, and low temperatures can help explain the acceleration of London’s illness and help understand modern pandemics as they are today. thinking about COVID-19 Pandemic..

“A particular pathogen can cause very different epidemics over time, whether they are in the same place or in different places,” Earn explained.

“Community traits can have a strong influence on epidemic patterns,” he said. “And, of course, individual behavioral reactions can also influence epidemic patterns,” he added.

The findings can also provide a blueprint for how current and future pandemics behave.

What the 1918 Influenza Pandemic Tells About Coronavirus

“Plague never disappears, and (SARS) CoV-2 never disappears,” Poiner told CNN, explaining that, like plague, the virus has a “natural reservoir” in its population. ..

“Fortunately, there is an amazing scientific community around the world working together more or less to come up with ways to come up with antibody therapies. Hopefully we can come up with longer and more effective vaccines. -Long-term immunity. ”

But he also warned that pandemics would continue to threaten humans as long as people invaded nature-something scientists and environmental organizations have. Repeated warning..
“The reality is that if you think this is the only time this happens, you’re fooling yourself, because it’s happened many times in human history and we continue to invade the land. Because it should happen again with-the same thing Climate change And environmental destruction-we must hit more reservoirs that spill over to humans, “he added.

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