When winter and the flu season come, it gets harder to control

In a sense, for COVID-19 in New Hampshire, late October looks astonishing as late April.

The number of new cases each day is growing as rapidly as it was then, and probably more in the spring than ever before, partly due to the increased amount of testing.

Deaths associated with COVID-19 are also increasing as they were then, and as in spring, deaths are now much lower, but most are limited to care facilities.

The biggest difference, and hopeful, hospitalizations increased in April, but now remain very low.

The big question is whether these numbers will peak as soon as mid-May and then steadily decline, or will the number of new cases, deaths and hospitalizations continue to increase in the winter.

One of the respected sites, the Institute of Health Indicators, University of Washington, Predict In New Hampshire, under current circumstances, COVID-19 deaths have nearly tripled, requiring more than double the intensive care units available in the state.

The institute makes forecasts for all 50 states and many countries based on models that take into account health data, demographics, and other data. It’s not clear why New Hampshire’s predictions of changes during the winter are so much worse than in Maine and Massachusetts, but even if the details are wrong, you need to maintain your current level of attention or be more careful. It reminds me of something. It’s damaging much of the economy, though we’re all tired of wearing masks, not seeing our grandparents, and avoiding the crowd.

Another concern: The flu season has begun and health officials are afraid of a “cold.” Influenza and COVID-19 have overlapping symptoms and effects on parts of the body, and early studies supported the common-sense belief that infection with one would exacerbate the other. I will.

New Hampshire has always had fairly high vaccination rates and this year is a good year to get a flu shot. The vaccine isn’t perfect, but if COVID-19 begins to overwhelm it, it can protect you and reduce the chances of your illness clogging your health system.

Here’s how we do it with weekly indicators: monitor I’ve been tracking since the beginning of summer. As always, you can see three charts about New Hampshire viruses that I update weekly from the following links: New case, New hospitalization,and Total deaths..

Goal 1: There is no sustained increase in new hospitalizations associated with COVID-19. Have you achieved this goal? Yes.

The two-week average of new hospitalizations fluctuates between half and once a day during the summer. It’s not going down, but it’s not going up.

Goal 2: 2 weeks reduction in new cases. Have you achieved this goal? number.

As mentioned earlier, the two-week average of new daily cases has risen at an unprecedented rate since the onset of the pandemic, doubling in less than a month. The average for October 1st was 38, rising to 87 by Sunday. The maximum number reported so far was 91 per day on May 13.

Goal 3: Less than 4 cases per 100,000 people per day, or 54 new cases per day. Have you achieved this goal? number.

Four new cases per 100,000 people daily are commonly used as a sign of widespread infection. Since early October, case roads have exceeded that number.

Goal 4: Perform at least 150 PCR tests per 100,000 people daily, or 2,000 tests per day. Have you achieved this goal? Yes, easily.

Goal 5: Positive rate of PCR test less than 5%. This indicates that we have done enough testing to get a good idea of ​​the virus epidemic. Have you achieved this goal? Yes, easily.

These goals may be adjusted quickly as the Department of Health and Human Services data includes antigen testing. They account for approximately one-third of all new cases.

Antigen tests find proteins in the blood that are on the surface of the coronavirus, and PCR tests detect the actual genetic material of the virus. The PCR test is more accurate, but it requires days of lab work, whereas antigen results require only chemical reactions that can be performed in the field in minutes.

So far, antigen testing has a higher positive rate than PCR testing in New Hampshire, sometimes above 10%, but PCR rates have been below 3% for several months. However, far fewer antigen tests have been reported, causing significant fluctuations in the data.

(You can contact David Brooks at 369-3313, dbrooks @ cmonitor.com, or Twitter @GraniteGeek.)