According to a new study, for every person diagnosed positive for coronavirus in China, there were another five to eight asymptomatic people who did not know they had the infection. In addition, these undocumented cases are likely to have infected most of the known cases and may have infected more serious cases.
As the world continues to fight against the coronavirus known as SARS-CoV-2, the number of cases continues to grow, rapidly filling online virus spread maps with an unstable red coat. However, underlying this highly visible threat is an entirely separate map outlining the invisible vehicle movement of the coronavirus. Coronavirus symptoms Jeez.
To determine the number of undocumented cases of COVID-19, groups of researchers from five institutions around the world looked at early figures in China, where outbreaks first began.
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Researchers have created a mathematical model to analyze the number of infections in 375 cities in China. Their models include travel times and distances of people who participated in the Tunisian or Lunar New Year period of the country, starting on January 10, by analyzing data from 2018. After that, we simulated observations from January 10 to January 23 from last year. China has implemented travel restrictions.
Based on the model, during this period, China should have had 86% more cases of COVID-19 than the state reported. And these undocumented cases were about half as likely as documented cases to infect others.
One reason is that systems with mild or asymptomatic cases are more likely to shed due to the lower viral load in the system. However, another study found that, albeit on a smaller scale, coronaviruses were the most contagious when the symptoms were the least severe. According to the Live Science Report. Another reason is that these people have less sneezing and coughing than people with more severe illness.
However, their modeling showed that these individuals were the source of 79% of all documented cases by January 23, as the number of undocumented cases was so high. The virus can spread in the air, so talk to the infected person; Pei told Live Science that it could also be spread by touching contaminated surfaces with infected individuals.
This means that even health care professionals who care for these patients are at risk of transmitting the coronavirus, especially if they do not have access to the right tools. “Asymptomatic cases can be transmitted, regardless of whether they are healthcare professionals,” Pey said.
These numbers vary from country to country. This is because each has different testing capabilities. “Our estimates are specifically for China, so it’s not always possible to move to the United States,” Pay said. Still, adding mild or asymptomatic infections will reduce mortality, he added.
“surely Transmission by people with few symptoms In the United States, “said Robert Robertsberg, a professor of epidemiology and medicine at the Boston University School of Public Health and School of Medicine, said he did not participate in the study. We think we can identify those people more. “
But the authors “are somewhat exaggerating their case,” said Holsberg. Analysis of data from China found that many studies found that the proportion of asymptomatic people was low, because the new study was not tested in the asymptomatic category Because they brought people together. Was added. However, “In the early days of China, as in the United States, there was not enough testing.”
Recently, Dr. Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Told NPR Although the exact number in the United States is not yet clear, as one in four in COVID-19 may be asymptomatic in the United States, Holsberg said that social distance is “ working, You have to stick with it. ” As the test becomes more widespread, he said, “we can switch to other strategies to isolate infected people,” he said.
The findings were published in the journal on March 16 Science.
Originally published Live science.
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