Banning public events could reduce COVID-19 infection rate by 24%: Lancet study

The analysis included 790 phases from 131 countries. (representative)

London:

According to a modeling study published in The Lancet Journal, the ban on public events could reduce COVID-19 replication (R), a key indicator of viral infection, by 24% in less than a month.

R-values ​​above 1 indicate an increase in occurrence, and R-values ​​less than 1 indicate a decrease in occurrence.

According to a survey using data from 131 countries, individual measures such as school and workplace closures, bans on public events and gatherings of 10 or more people, stay-at-home orders, and internal movement restrictions are SARS-CoV-2.

However, the combined measures are more effective in reducing infections, the researchers said.

“We found that combining different measures was most effective in reducing COVID-19 infection. Given the experience of virus recurrence, policy makers are considering combining measures to reduce R numbers. “We need to do that,” said Professor Harish Nair. University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom.

“Our research can inform us of decisions about which measures to implement or discontinue, and when they will be effective, but this also depends on local conditions-at any point in time. The number of R’s in the area, the medical capacity of the region, and the economic impact of social measures. “

Looking at the measures individually, the ban on public events was associated with the largest reduction in R (a 24% reduction after 28 days). This is likely to prevent Superspreader events and is often the first measure introduced in the country.

According to researchers, the measures most strongly associated with the increase in R were the lifting of the ban on meetings of more than 10 people and the reopening of schools.

School reopening was associated with a 24% increase in R by day 28, but researchers found that various precautions taken to reopen school, such as class size restrictions and distance measurements. , Warns that it cannot explain regular hand washing etc. Personal hand washing, face mask, temperature check on arrival.

They said these are essential for a safer school reopening and should be taken into account when interpreting this finding.

“After resuming school, there was an increase in R, but it is not clear if the increase was due to a particular age group. There is a big difference in compliance with social distance measurements inside and outside the classroom. It may be, “Nair added.

“In addition, more data is needed to understand the specific role of schools in increasing SARS-CoV-2 infection by robust contact tracing,” he said.

However, this study does not consider other influential factors that may affect R. This includes compliance with interventions, changes in population behavior, regional differences in R, or the effects of contact tracing. And Separation-These all depend on the context.

There are also restrictions on using the R number as a substitute for transmission, as it is difficult to estimate accurately, especially if the prevalence is low.

In this modeling study, data on daily country-level estimates of R were linked to data on the measures taken by those countries from January 1, 2020 to July 20, 2020.

Each country’s timeline was split into individual phases when all measures remained the same in that country.

The analysis included 790 phases from 131 countries, and the author used a model to measure the association between which measures were taken and changes in R.

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