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No, COVID doesn’t make Americans drink. This is the reason.

No, COVID doesn’t make Americans drink. This is the reason.

 


I said it before Once again, pandemics do not cause alcohol overdose in most people. Recent studies have led to another round of misleading and inaccurate headlines written about impact values ​​declaring increased drinking this year, especially among women.

the study, Conducted by the non-political RAND Corporation, published by the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA), funded by the National Institute of Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism, and drunk from 1540 American adults (aged 18+). I asked about the amount and frequency. May and / or June 30, 2020, months after COVID began blocking parts of the country in March. Some data show that intake increased during the same period last year. However, RAND and many media have downplayed or overlooked statistics that conclude that this is not the case.

In fact, as Boston Herald did, it’s not accurate to say “according to a study that a coronavirus pandemic makes women drink.” And, in my opinion, it is a misnomer to conclude that “healthcare systems may need to educate consumers through printed matter and online media,” as RAND did. Increased alcohol usage during a pandemic (Italic mine). “

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Here’s the fact: the woman reported a little more drinking often 30 days before answering the survey questions. However, they also reported drinking small amounts of alcohol during those sessions, resulting in net negative total consumption. Men and all adults aged 30-59 reported drinking slightly more overall, but by that day the amount they drank had decreased.

So while it is accurate to say that women drank 17% more often, as the data show, it is inaccurate to say that women drank 17% more, as many media did. is. It is also accurate to say that 20% of women have a high rate of heavy drinking over the measured period, but it is inaccurate to suggest that all women do.

Michael Pollard, author of the RAND study, replied: There was no significant reduction observed at the average level. “

It is also important to note that for datasets that show increased consumption, the number of baselines is so small that the increase appears to be significant. Much of the media has chosen not to include these baselines.

For example, Axios could not provide context for a brief description of the investigation. Under the heading “Americans are drinking more alcohol than in 2019,” public health reporter Marisa Fernandez wrote: “Women’s alcohol consumption has increased by 17%. Women’s heavy drinking (drinking four or more glasses within a few hours) has surged 41% since 2019.”

Yes, those percentages are true. But while I’m definitely not promoting overconsumption, it’s important for us in the media to tell our readers what statistical changes represent. So here it is:

The woman reported drinking 4.6 days of the month in May and / or June 2019. He reported drinking 5.4 days during that period in 2020. This is a 0.8 day increase, or 17% more frequent. What if the same woman drank 15.1 cups in 30 days in 2019 and 14.3 cups in 2020? This is a net reduction of 0.81, a 5% reduction in consumption.

Let’s take a look at one of the other statistics where Axios and RAND are highlighted.

・ Heavy drinking has skyrocketed 41% among women, hasn’t it? This number is due to a .18 increase in the number of days of heavy drinking from .4 to .6. Now, from a different perspective, in 2019, these “heavy drinkers” women drank 3.3 cups a day. In 2020? 2.7. This is a 19% reduction in consumption.

“Most people are not yet heavy drinkers, while this means that the experienced increase caused by a relatively minority of the population was much greater than the reported national average.” Send an email to Pollard. “In fact, one in 15 women who did not drink heavily in 2019 became heavy drinkers in 2020, and the average number of days for these new heavy drinkers was 2.6 days per month. The increase was even greater among those who were already drinking alcohol. The reduction in hyperphagia, and those who quit heavy drinking altogether, outweighed the increase while it was still occurring. ”

Overall, the population increased the number of drinking days by 14% to 6.2 and the total number of monthly drinks by 0.3% to 18.5. This means a 12% reduction in alcohol consumption per session.

And an adult aged 30-59? More often than 19 percent (5 to 5.9 days); 17% increase in total drinks (16.4 to 9.2 drinks). 1.2% less drinks per day (3.3 to 3.3 drinks).

Yes, the total population of that age group and adult drinking have increased slightly. And again, my intention is not to minimize it. But: Most of the time, we’re only talking about just a few of the points. We are measuring the 30 days of May and June, not the entire pandemic. According to one international expert on alcohol use, exaggerating the degree of drinking may actually further facilitate this behavior.

David Hanson, an emeritus professor of sociology at the State University of New York at Potsdam, said RAND’s report “cherries” which data to emphasize, focusing its conclusions on alarming information and ignoring the rest. It states that it is doing. He calls this the opposite effect.

“By exaggerating the extent of the increase and consistently ignoring the decrease, the report inadvertently promotes the actions that are being reduced. When they believe, they tend to increase their behavior on their own, “he says, citing drunk driving and first-year college drinking as examples.

Lester Jones, Chief Economist of the National Beer Wholesalers Association, has made an exception to this report. “People can’t draw conclusions from random anecdotes. They need to look at the data together.”

Aggregated data does not deny RAND’s claim. However, it does not necessarily support them.

According to information provided by Jones, US beer sales fell 2.7% between 2019 and 2020. According to the data, beer sales in January increased by 2.1% year-on-year, decreased slightly in February (year-on-year), and then changed sharply. It increased by 8.9% in April and 16.1% in May. After leveling in June, they started crawling back in July and August last month when data was available.

Jones states that these figures do not include the large returns and refunds required for the rapid closure of on-premises bars, restaurants, concert venues, festivals and more.

Moreover, despite major social turmoil such as the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, ethyl alcohol consumption across the United States was stable from 2000 to 2019 and did not change significantly. did. Data for 2020 does not yet exist.

“There are very slow and predictable changes in aggregate demand over time, depending on demographics and market dynamics,” Jones writes.

Neither Axios nor Boston Herald responded to requests for comment by the press time.

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