The number of new COVID-19 cases in Pima County has increased sharply from the last week to the next, and the trend for new cases in the past few weeks has been somewhat flat.
According to the Arizona Department of Health’s COVID-19 case chart, the total number of new cases each week increased by 66% to 875, with a number of diagnostic tests from October 11-17 to October 18-24 14 Increased by%. Friday date.
Pima County was one of the largest growth rates in any county in Arizona during this time frame.
At the same time, new cases increased 31% across the state to 7,807, and diagnostic tests increased 16%.
The weekly percentage of diagnostic tests that returned positive also increased from 5% to 6% across the state and from 4% to 6% across the county.
According to the county’s chief health officer, Dr. Francisco Garcia, although the outbreak occurred in a federal prison near the airport, early signs may have been caused by a single outbreak in Pima County. There is no such thing.
He said health officials mainly saw new cases “scattered” everywhere, not in a single place.
They found a single incident from people who attended a large political rally, including President Trump’s recent visit, Garcia said. “At least at this point, we haven’t seen any related outbreaks.”
He added that it was too early to determine if the increasing number of incidents led to the reopening of schools.
More likely, he said, was the result of community expansion from countries and other parts of the state, such as Maricopa County.
“When Maricopa County coughs, Pima County also catches a cold,” he said. “The huge amount of population that Phoenix Metro has a disproportionate impact on everyone … it will affect us. We need to be aware of it and come up with new strategies.”
According to Garcia, hospitalizations appear to be “reasonable,” with a slight reduction in ICU capacity and stable beds of about 30 beds per day.
“It was interesting because the hospital told me four or five weeks ago that ICU had no COVID patients for a while. Now they are saying the opposite. They tell us two patients. And some have more than others, “he said.
According to Dr. Joe Gerald, an associate professor at the Zuckerman College of Public Health at the University of Arizona, cases are increasing across the state at all age groups, but appear to be concentrated in the 25-64 age group.
“They’re just unquoted, ordinary people going to work,” he said.
Currently, cases are not increasing as rapidly as in May and June, but the virus may do it again.
“We need to think about what we can do to slow this down,” Gerald said. “It’s like boiling a frog. The water is hot. We haven’t screamed yet, but if we don’t change anything, the bad times will come.”
Despite the potential big surge, Garcia said he didn’t expect Governor Doug Ducey to come to a curfew again.
“This is because there really isn’t a simple and appropriate fix for this,” he said.
According to Gerald, the number of empty beds throughout the state continues to decline in both intensive care units and general wards. “If this continues and seems to continue, then problems arise.”
The challenge, he said, was to find out which week was really sick. “I don’t know exactly, but I think there could be a problem in Arizona right after Thanksgiving and certainly by Christmas.”
According to Gerald, fewer people tend to adhere to safety measures that reduce the spread of the virus, such as wearing a mask or physically moving away. He added that things need to be exacerbated in order for people to change their behavior and for policymakers to intervene.
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