Focus on COVID-19 deaths under the age of 65 to better understand infection rates across the population, according to researchers

A simple comparison of the total number of deaths across the country may lead to the level of misleading expression underlying the infection with SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for COVID-19. This is a variety of countries.

A study conducted by scientists at the University of Cambridge and the Pasteur Institute was published in a major journal today. Nature.. This emphasizes that the outbreak of large-scale COVID-19 in European nursing homes and the potential for missing deaths in some Asian and South American countries distort COVID-19. .. death Elderly data makes cross-country comparisons of pandemic scale inaccurate.

Researchers have found that reports of deaths from COVID-19 among people under the age of 65 are much more likely to be reliable, thus giving clearer insights into the underlying transmission of the virus and more than between countries. It says it can enable good comparisons. A strategy that attempts to bring COVID-19 under control.

“Simply comparing the total number of deaths across the country can be misleading as it represents the underlying level of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Most deaths are elderly, but across the country. The comparison is the least, “said Megan O’Driscoll, Ph.D., researcher at the Faculty of Genetics, University of Cambridge, and lead author of the dissertation.

In countries such as the United Kingdom, Canada and Sweden, COVID-19 pandemics are disproportionately affecting nursing home residents, who account for more than 20% of all reported COVID-19 deaths. Levels of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the general population can be difficult to unravel from these large outbreaks.

In contrast, in some countries in Asia and South America, COVID-19 deaths in the elderly have been reported to be much lower than expected. One potential explanation for these missing deaths is that the country is struggling to contain the epidemic, so it is unlikely that the cause of death in the elderly will be investigated and reported. ..

“Nursing homes are a community of people that spread as soon as a virus invades and at a higher level. infection Than the average person. Dr. Henrik Sarje, Faculty of Genetics, University of Cambridge, said he was the lead author of the report. ..

“Not only are residents older than the general population, but they are generally frail, so 70-year-olds living in nursing homes are more likely to die of COVID-19 than 70-year-olds,” he said. Added.In General population.. To reduce the total number of deaths from COVID-19, it is essential to protect the vulnerable elderly community. ”

In their new model, researchers integrated age-specific COVID-19 mortality data from 45 countries with 22 national-level serum prevalence studies. Governments in many countries use serum prevalence surveys to estimate the number of people in a population that has antibodies. Coronavirus.. Antibodies are a good indicator of the overall population’s infection rate, as they indicate whether a person is infected with SARS-CoV-2 at any given time.

“Our model shows that the number of deaths from COVID-19 by age for people under the age of 65 is very consistent across the country and is likely to be a reliable indicator of the number of infections in the population. This is a situation where most infectious diseases have not been observed. “

This model can be used at the national level to predict the likelihood of death from COVID-19 after infection, depending on age. It also works in reverse to estimate the total number of infections in a country, taking into account the number of deaths from COVID-19 in a certain age group. This is especially useful in areas where serum prevalence studies have not been conducted.

Using mortality data from only the age group under 65, which is the most representative of infections in the entire population, it is shown that by September 1, this year, an average of 5% of the country’s population had been infected with SARS-CoV-. It has been. 2.2. However, it was much higher in some places, especially in South America.

For example, using the COVID-19 deaths in Peru, which corresponds to 0.01% of the country’s population, the model is: population Currently, Peru is infected with SARS-CoV-2. This is a much higher number than expected. This indicates that the virus infection rate is particularly high in Peru.

However, even after excluding data for ages 65 and older, the model has one COVID-19 mortality rate due to the inconsistent relationship between infection and mortality when other widespread “comorbidity” factors are involved. It shows that it cannot be compared between the countries of the department.

“People living in places such as Slovenia and Denmark are less likely to die after being infected with SARS-CoV-2, even after considering the age of the population. This is what we saw in New York. It’s very different, for example New York. There can be fundamental differences in population from country to country, which can include underlying health conditions, “says Sarje.

The model also showed a strong pattern in countries in the age group of 5-9 years, which consistently had the lowest probability of death after SARS-CoV-2 infection.

This study shows how to reconstruct the underlying level of SARS-CoV-2 infection in a country and how it changed over time, using only age-specific mortality data. I am. Researchers say this approach is applicable on a local scale and may be particularly useful in situations where large-scale serum prevalence studies may not be feasible.