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Coronavirus epidemic in Harford County: Identify risk of exposure

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Harford County, Maryland — Due to the surge in coronavirus cases and hospitalizations in Maryland, state officials said this month due to high infection rates, other households for Thanksgiving and other social events. I asked the residents not to gather with the residents of. If so, they are advised to wear a mask.

“To reduce the COVID-19 epidemic, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Maryland Department of Health recommend canceling large rallies and keeping social distance in small rallies.” Governor Larry Hogan said on November 10. Executive order..

What is the risk of exposure?

According to the COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool, at a 10-person event in Harford County, there is a 14% chance that someone in the event will be infected with the virus.

Researchers at several universities have created tools to map the risk of coronavirus infection in all jurisdictions across the country based on the size and location of the event.

Based on Wednesday’s data, there is a 78% chance that someone will get the virus when 100 people get together in Harford County.

The· The tool shows an estimated chance — Between 0 and 100 percent — At least one person encounters the coronavirus at an event in your jurisdiction. According to researchers, wearing a mask and gathering outdoors in small groups at a distance can reduce the risk.

This tool examines the risk of exposure based on the size of a gathering of 10 to 5,000 people.

According to the survey, as of Wednesday, the risks based on Harford County are:

  • According to the COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool, at a 10-person event in Harford County, there is a 14% chance that someone in the event will be infected with the virus.
  • A gathering of 15 people carries a 20% risk of exposure.
  • For the size of a 25-person gathering, that chance increases to 31 percent.
  • If 50 people get together, there is a 53% chance that someone will get the virus.
  • If 100 people get together, there is a 78% chance that someone will get the virus.
  • At 500 gatherings, chances are over 99%.

It uses a 5: 1 confirmation bias. In other words, researchers assume that there are five times as many cases as reported.

Two professors at Georgia Institute of Technology led the creation of the project, and their team included researchers from Stanford University and the Institute of Applied Bioinformatics.

“By default, we assume five times as many cases as reported,” the team said in a statement. “In places where test availability is low, that bias can be high.”

Use COVID-19 Click here for “Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool”.

Patch editors Amber Fisher and William Bornhoft contributed to this report.

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