According to the government, the growth of the coronavirus in the southwest is expected to slow considerably.
The latest figures from the government and SAGE (Science Advisory Group for Emergency Situations), updated at lunchtime, show a decline in both reproductive and growth rates in the region.
The virus is still expected to grow, between + 1% and + 4% daily, which is much slower than last week’s forecast, with growth rates of + 4% to + 7%. ..
Similarly, Southwestern reproduction numbers (R) are currently between 1.0 and 1.3. This is the average number of people who are expected to continue to be infected with the virus. This is also slightly lower than last week’s 1.0 to 1.2 and 1.4.
This figure predicts that Cornwall is 83% likely to become a “hotspot” by the first week of December, with at least 100 cases per 100,000 people, an infectious disease analyst at Imperial College London. It seems to be a little inconsistent with the data published by. Just a few days after the country is supposed to break out of the blockade.
They believe this is more likely to happen in the coming weeks, and now only 48% of local governments are likely to reach these numbers by the week ending tomorrow (Saturday, November 21). But by the week ending November 28th, December 5th, 83%.
The current estimated growth rate of the virus by SAGE across the government and the UK is currently between 0% and + 2% daily, lower than last week’s + 1% to + 3%. R number range from 1.0 to 1.1.
As of Thursday, Cornwall has a weekly rate of 90.2 cases per 100,000 people, with 516 cases confirmed in the seven days leading up to November 14.
This week, SAGE said: “Large regional fluctuations due to outbreaks in a region can mean that a single mean does not accurately reflect changes in infection across the region.
“But it is the view of SAGE experts that this week’s quote is reliable.
“These estimates represent Covid-19 infections in the last few weeks due to someone being infected, having symptoms, and delaying the time to need medical care.
“R and growth estimates are shown as ranges, and true values can be within this range.”
These are the latest R and growth estimates by the NHS England region.
Region R growth rate% / day
England 1.0-1.10 to +2
East of England 1.0-1.3 + 1 to +4
London 1.0-1.20 to +3
Midlands 1.0-1.2 + 1 to +3
North East and Yorkshire 1.0-1.10 ~ + 2
Northwest 0.8-1.0-3 to 0
Southeast 1.1-1.3 + 1 to +4
Southwest 1.0-1.3 + 1 to +4
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