Health
Glitter of Hope: Global Influenza Outbreaks Record Low in Pandemic
Public health officials and experts looking at the dark clouds of the coronavirus pandemic have picked out the smallest silver lining: this year’s flu infection is one of the lowest recorded in history. It looks like there is.
Experts said it was too early to conclude what the winter months would bring as the northern hemisphere cools. However, Southern Hemisphere data suggest that the worst-case scenario, one in which influenza is piled up in a healthcare system already stressed by the coronavirus surge, may not be possible.
Epidemiologist Christine Petersen, who studies influenza at the University of Iowa, said that “their infection rate was surprisingly low” in the Southern Hemisphere. “There was no decent level of communication anywhere except Southeast Asia.”
Data collected by the World Health Organization show significantly lower levels of flu-like illness this year compared to the past few years. In March (usually the peak of the Southern Hemisphere flu season), about 36 out of 1,000 outpatients showed flu-like illness. In the latest year of significant expansion, the spring of 2017, the number exceeded 200 per 1,000 patients.
These days, transmission speeds are even slower.
“Globally, influenza activity remained at lower levels than expected at this time of the year, despite continued or increased testing for influenza in some countries,” WHO said. Wrote in early November.
In the United States, data collected so far by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) show lower than average influenza infections. According to the CDC’s weekly FluView report, only 1.5% of healthcare provider visits over the past week have been flu-like illnesses.
Since September, 122,000 people have been tested for influenza, and only 319 have tested positive, less than 0.5%.
According to experts, low-level infections are likely to be a combination of behavioral changes and a little scientific luck that took place during the coronavirus pandemic. The two predominant flu vaccines developed this year will not be available until next year in the number of Americans vaccinated against the flu.
But most of the credit belongs to the changes in behavior that people around the world have made. Wearing a mask reduces the spread of respiratory infections.
“Because this is a respiratory illness, we need to wear a mask and we don’t get infected, so we all spent some quiet time about it,” Petersen said.
Health experts warn that the flu is still a few months cold, a great opportunity to gain a foothold.
Kelli Drenner, a public health expert at the University of Houston, said: “Thanksgiving, all bets are off. It will change.”
Low infection rates are a small reason for optimism when the coronavirus is spreading more rapidly than ever, just before one or more COVID-19 vaccines hit the market.
“We can still be stupid,” Petersen said. Or she added: “In fact, I was able to see one of the least flu years I’ve ever had.”
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