The Covid-19 rate “can easily double” due to the relaxed Christmas restrictions.

Relaxation of restrictions during the festival will result in a “significant” increase in coronavirus infection rates, and prevalence rates “can easily double,” scientists advised the government.

In a series of documents released Friday, the Emergency Science Advisory Group (Sage), which advises the government, said that a “substantial mix” of short-term people represents a “significant risk of widespread infection.” Stated.

At a meeting on November 18, a few days before the government announced that Christmas restrictions would be restricted, scientists warned: “In the days of the holiday season, the prevalence can easily double and even double as new. The infection returns to a” routine “network. “

This week, Boris Johnson told his family that he had to make a “personal judgment” about the risk of coronavirus to vulnerable loved ones when forming Christmas bubbles.

The prime minister urged the public to “think carefully” during the festival after it was confirmed that the three households would be mixed from December 23 to 27.

At a meeting on October 29, a week before Britain entered its second blockade, Sage preceded behavioral and behavioral changes to reduce “the inevitable risk of social mixing during the festival.” Warned that the prevalence needs to be significantly reduced. intervention.

The meeting summary added that measures to achieve this need to be implemented “as soon as possible”.

Since then, the government has announced the introduction of a stricter tier system in the United Kingdom at the end of the second blockade on December 2. As a result, more than 55 million people will be put into Tier 2 and Tier 3 measures.

Meanwhile, experts advising the government, based on evidence from other respiratory infections, older families are generally at higher risk of respiratory illness during the festival, and younger people contribute to this risk. It states that it is doing.

They show that the virus that causes Covid-19, Sars-Cov-2, “has a high rate of secondary attacks in households, with up to 50% in one household being transmitted by one infected member.” I added.

Independent Scientific Pandemic Insights Group on Behaviors (SPI-B), which advises Sage in a document dated November 26, states that interactions in the home environment are likely to pose greater risks than public and workplace settings. Said.

This is because they are familiar with places and people and have no clear responsibility for ensuring the safety of the environment.

“People are more likely to relax and be alert to the closest people,” said an expert.

They also allow households to “bubble” during festivals, such that groups of people effectively form a single, larger household that does not mix with others, to a certain number. He said it may be better at controlling infections than limiting contact.

However, experts said that “faithfulness to the bubble is paramount” for the proposal to work.

According to government guidelines, each Christmas bubble can be met at home, in a place of worship, or in a public place outdoors, but existing, more restrictive rules regarding hospitality and other places are maintained for the duration.

Experts say: “Bubbling is most effective when the time of infection is limited to less than one generation (about a week).”

They added: “The more households in the bubble, the higher the risk of“ outside the bubble ”contact and the risk of infection.

“No matter which system you choose, avoid bubbling sequentially or multiple times.”

Meanwhile, in another dateless document, SPI-B warned that one of the main challenges of Christmas celebrations is enforcement.

The document states: “It is almost impossible to force a festive action in a private home.”

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