Health Authority: “Catastrophic” Level COVID-19 Hospitalization Coming Without State Measures | National News

Public health officials say urgent efforts are needed to combat the “relentless infection” of COVID-19 across Tucson and the state, after a record number of virus cases and hospitalizations continued for another week. Stated.

If the state government does not take immediate action, authorities predict “catastrophic” levels of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. In this week’s letter to the Arizona Department of Health, the University of Arizona’s COVID-19 modeling team conducted a state-wide mask mandate for Arizona leaders and issued and added a two-week shelter-in-place ordinance. Encouraged to go through financial remedies.

“No matter what we do, Arizona will experience a hospital crisis in the coming weeks,” the letter said. “But if you don’t take immediate action, you run the risk of causing a catastrophe on the scale of the worst natural disaster the state has ever experienced. It’s like facing a large wildfire without evacuation orders. I am. “

According to predictions by Arizona State University scientists, COVID-19 hospitalization will exceed the current ICU and general ward capacity by early December without intervention to slow the spread. They also predict that hospitalization will exceed Arizona’s total hospital capacity by late December and that virus-free routine, emergency, or urgent care will not be available.

“There will be more cases, which will lead to hospitalization, ICU visits, and ultimately death,” said Dr. Joe Gerald, an associate professor at UA’s Zuckerman University of Public Health. .. “Christmas at the end of December this year is going to be a terrible time not only here in Pima County, but also in the state. If no meaningful action is taken within the next two weeks, we will take care of the patient in the hospital. It will overwhelm your ability. “

As of Friday, the Pima County Health Department recorded more than 9,800 cases in November, nearly quadrupling the number of cases in October, surpassing the previous peak in the summer county.

The county also recorded the largest number of weekly cases, exceeding 3,600, last week. This is almost 40% more than the previous record in July. New records of one-day infections have also been reported, reaching 878 cases on Sunday, November 22, and 691 cases the day after Thanksgiving.

Infections are also accelerating throughout the state. The Arizona Department of Health so far reported 71,000 positive cases in November, compared to 32,000 in October.

“This week we’re breaking the record for the number of cases that have occurred in the county, which is horrifying,” said Dr. Francisco Garcia, Chief Medical Officer of Pima County. “That’s why we’re doing something relatively unpopular.”

The Pima County Health Department issued a public health recommendation on Monday, urging residents to comply with the curfew until the end of the year. The county does not have the authority to mandate a curfew, but officials said they wanted residents to take the recommendation seriously.

“We are now sitting on a time bomb, and we just close our eyes and just pray that it won’t disappear on our face,” Gerald said. “We are already at peak levels, and if Thanksgiving did what we were thinking, based on what happened in Canada, for example, the situation would worsen even more rapidly than it is now. . “

Canadians estimate that the number of cases of COVID-19 increased by 45% as a result of Thanksgiving on October 12. Authorities expect a similar outbreak in the United States, but no impact will be seen for 10-14 days.

“People think there is a safe way to get together with people who are not part of the family, and there are really few safe ways to do that so far.” Pima County Public Health Director Said Dr. Teresa Karen. “It is human wonder and beauty that we want to show compassion, love and compassion. And we do it through physical contact and conversation. That is what people crave. Yes, I think that’s what’s happening. “

According to Karen, these domestic rallies and outings to bars and restaurants contribute to the county’s coronavirus counts and are damaging the county’s hospital system.

Hospitalizations with the new COVID-19 have increased by 51% across counties and 57% across states since last month, according to data from November 25.

On Thanksgiving Day, there were only eight ICU beds available at the Pima County hospital. At some point this month in Arizona, only 10% of ICU beds were available.

“I’ve heard from healthcare providers and hospital managers that I’ve been hurt here for a week,” Garcia said. “We monitor the capacity of the hospital very carefully. And it’s not about beds or physical space. It’s about staffing. And some of our hospital partners are hospitals. We know that some people are beginning to feel a pinch of capacity issues. “

According to Garcia, healthcare professionals are flooded with not only COVID-19 patients, but also those dealing with influenza and other seasonal illnesses. He said this combination is rapidly straining resources.

Hospitals have emergency response plans to make beds available as needed, but staffing of these extra beds remains a concern. During the first surge in cases in June and July, the Department of Health worked with federal partners to bring in nurses and doctors from across the country. However, as hospitals are beginning to address the influx of both COVID-19 and other seasonal illnesses, counties and states may have to wait for additional staffing support.

“Currently, the number is increasing, but we have been able to handle the number of cases that are being hospitalized,” says Karen. “But the concern is that when we start looking at additional cases with sick people, we will have problems.”

Increased hospitalization also means increased mortality, but they are lagging indicators and usually take longer to report. Of the 6,624 people who died of COVID-19 in Arizona, it took an average of 21 days after infection, so the county may not see an increase in mortality until the end of December.

According to current ASU projections, Arizona is set to exceed the ICU’s capacity as early as next week, and if state-wide measures are not taken, the hospital’s total capacity by Christmas Day. Will exceed.

Public health officials also warned that this situation could force hospitals to decide who would be treated and who would not be treated, regardless of whether they had COVID-19. I am.

“The surge in COVID-19 means hospitals lack the physical resources and personnel to provide timely care, with more Arizonas dying from heart attacks, strokes and car accident injuries. Let’s do it, “says the UA modeling team.

Local leaders continue to do what they can to prevent the epidemic and encourage residents to follow mask obligations and social distance protocols, but county-by-county mitigation measures are no longer sufficient. ..

“I really think we need to be careful at the state-wide level to consider the right interventions that we know have worked in the past,” Karen said. “No one wants another blockade, but there is a lesson we have learned that can help us mitigate this transmission, and we know we will do it. , Reduction of social activity and masking. “

Given the current outbreaks and accelerated infection rates, Gerald said that simply resuming shelter-in-place orders would have enough impact to keep counties and states off track and prevent the most catastrophic events. Said. Prediction from the outbreak.

“It will be a very desperate and difficult Christmas season, especially for Arizona and Pima County. I’m very worried about how this will unfold,” Gerald said. “It’s unrealistic, especially given that we’re doing little to change our approach and magically want it to disappear naturally. It doesn’t happen. It’s different. You have to do it, or you’ll be completely overwhelmed. “