Fact Check: Sweden has not achieved herd immunity and there is no evidence that the blockade is useless

A video produced by Prager U, a conservative U.S. non-profit organization with hundreds of thousands of views and over 3,000 shares on Facebook, said, “Sweden is proof that the blockade is useless to stop the COVID-19 epidemic. The population may be in a “flock”. Immunity due to lack of national shutdown. ” These claims are false.

In the video in question, the founder of the organization, Dennis Preger, sits in a chair by the fireplace and has the headline “” Pursuing science “is a lie.” here And here ..

The next fact check will investigate the current state of COVID-19 infection and mortality in Sweden, the country’s response to pandemics over the past few months, and the number of additional infections needed to reach herd immunity.

Sweden’s current status of COVID-19

The daily average reported on 12 November was the highest, with COVID-19 infections in Sweden currently at 99% of the peak, with an average of 4,625 new infections reported per day. At the time of publication of this article, 257,934 infections and 6,891 coronavirus-related deaths have been reported domestically since the outbreak of the pandemic (here). The Scandinavian county had 10,352,390 inhabitants as of mid-2020 (here).

According to a mortality analysis at the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center (here), Sweden has a case fatality rate of 2.6%, which is higher than neighboring Finland (1.6%), Norway (0.9%), Denmark (1.0%), and the United States (2.0%). As a country, Sweden has caused 66.76 COVID-19 deaths per 100,000. In contrast, Finland has 7.23, Norway 6.28, Denmark 14.59 and the United States 82.72.

As shown here According to Our World in Data, a scientific publication run by researchers at Oxford University, Sweden’s daily COVID-19 deaths increased by 1,200% between August 1st and December 1st. Did.

Sweden is not “proof that the blockade is useless”

“Sweden did not blockade” in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, as Preger stated in the video. Unlike many countries around the world trying to contain the spread of the new coronavirus infection by closing schools, workplaces, borders and other places, Sweden has become an international anomaly, with official blockades and widespread faces. Avoid the use of masks and rely on citizens to voluntarily follow them Precautionary measures as a social distance to control the spread of the virus ( here , here ).

In late June, Sweden announced a committee to evaluate its pandemic response, responding to criticisms of deaths far exceeding those of neighboring countries (here). At that time, more than 5,300 Swedes died, about 250 in Norway, 600 in Denmark and 325 in Finland, about half the population.

In the summer calm of infectious diseases (here), Anders Tegnell, the country’s top epidemiologist and designer of its unorthodox pandemic strategy, is likely to see local outbreaks in Sweden, but COVID-19 cases in the fall. I predicted that I wouldn’t see a big second wave ofhere).

As explained in the September 18 article published by the Department of Science and Social Sciences at McGill University (here), Sweden is “adapting to the new normal” in some respects, despite not implementing a forced blockade, and for many people use hand sanitizers and outdoors with friends. Means to meet.

However, as outlined in Magill’s analysis, long-term sanatorium workers lack personal protective equipment, with more than half of COVID-19 deaths in Sweden occurring in elderly care facilities. .. Part of their own failure.

In addition, the public health agency’s decision not to convey the risk of asymptomatic spreaders (here) And its ambivalence in wearing masks “may have also been the cause of false reassurance,” Magill’s article said.

Sweden has set new case records daily throughout most of November and is currently struggling to curb the spread of the second wave of the disease (here).

On November 12, Tegnell himself admitted that the country was fighting the second wave of the pandemic after suggesting in August that such a scenario was unlikely (here).

According to the Washington Post (here), “Even Sweden seems to have abandoned the Swedish model,” state officials have banned gatherings of more than eight people and banned the sale of alcohol in restaurants and bars after 10 pm

As reported here According to Reuters, Sweden enrolled 17,265 new coronavirus cases between November 20 and 24, recording 15,084 new cases during the corresponding period a week ago (1 week ago).here).

Based on the above information, Dennis Preger’s claim that “Sweden is proof that the blockade is useless” is not accurate.

A study published by the University of Virginia School of Medicine in July (here) Claimed that the lack of national blockade increased COVID-19 deaths in Sweden.

At the time the survey was conducted, Sweden had nearly four times the per capita mortality rate of Denmark, nearly seven times that of Finland, and more than seven times that of Norway. All of these countries have taken much stricter steps than Sweden.

Previous Reuters fact checks on the effectiveness of blockades during a pandemic are available here ..

Sweden has not achieved herd immunity

Preger is defined as claiming in the video that Sweden has “probably” achieved “herd immunity.” here “Most of the community (herd) is unaffected by the disease, making it less likely to spread from person to person,” the Mayo Clinic said.

According to the Mayo Clinic, “There are two routes to COVID-19 herd immunity: vaccine and infection.” Promising vaccines from Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca are awaiting approval (here), Herd immunity preger refers to a species that depends on community infection.

The total number of infectious diseases reported is 257,934, and so far only about 2.5% of Sweden’s 10.2 million residents have been “officially” infected with COVID-19 ( here , (here ).

A study published in The Lancet Medical Journal on November 4 (hereIt is estimated that the level of herd immunity required to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection is approximately 60-72%.

Even if “unofficial” infections exceed 2.5%, they may not have reached the levels required for herd immunity. Using the lower bound of this estimate, a total of more than 6.1 million people in Sweden must be infected to achieve herd immunity. Based on the high end, more than 7.2 million people should be infected.

Regarding herd immunity, Tegnell said in a briefing in Stockholm that “currently there are no signs of herd immunity delaying infection.” (((hereAccording to a November report from the Swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter, about one-third of the Stockholm citizens tested had antibodies ().here).

The possibility of reinfection with COVID-19 poses another impediment to the achievement of herd immunity through community infection ( here, here ). “Further research is needed to determine the protective effect of antibodies against the virus in infected people,” according to the Mayo Clinic.here).

At the time of publication of this article, Prager U has not responded to Reuters’ request for comment.

The Reuters fact-checking team has previously unpacked a misleading Prager U video that presents a statement on climate change without major context. here ..

verdict

error. Sweden’s current status of COVID-19 is not “evidence that the blockade is useless.” Statistics on COVID-19 infection and mortality show a new increase in November 2020. This means that Sweden has not achieved herd immunity.

This article was created by the Reuters fact-checking team.Read more about our work to fact check social media posts here ..