India vaccinated 800 million people and could develop herd immunity with 1.6 billion COVID-19 vaccinations

India is the biggest buyer COVID-19 (new coronavirus infection) (# If there is no character limit, add parentheses when it first appears According to a global analysis, 1.6 billion doses of the world’s vaccine “can cover 800 million people, or 60% of the population, and are sufficient to develop herd immunity,” some scientists say.

According to the U.S.-based Duke University Global Health Innovation Center, India has 500 million candidates for the Oxford University-AstraZeneca vaccine, 1 billion from the US company Novavax, and 100 million Sputnik V candidates from the Russian Gamalaya Institute. I bought it once.

According to an analysis of the Launch and Scale Speedometer, which is updated every two weeks, India confirmed 1.6 billion doses of the three vaccines as of November 30, and the US and EU purchased six candidate doses.

According to analysis, India is the top COVID-19 (new coronavirus infection) (# If there is no character limit, add parentheses when it first appears Following the purchaser of the vaccine, the European Union, which confirmed 1.58 billion doses, and the United States, the most affected country to date, managed to purchase more than a billion doses.

As the country develops strategies to secure more shots to protect their population from novels Coronavirus Infectious Diseases, Duke University Releases New Global Evaluation of Purchase Contracts COVID-19 (new coronavirus infection) (# If there is no character limit, add parentheses when it first appears Vaccines even before the candidate hits the market.

“Manufacturing capacity countries such as India and Brazil have successfully negotiated large-scale pre-market commitments with key vaccine candidates as part of their manufacturing contracts,” Duke’s researchers said in an analysis. ..

“The data is in the public domain, especially after talking to Indian government officials,” explained renowned virologist Shahid Jamesel.

In November, Federal Health Minister Hirschwaldan said 400-500 million doses. COVID-19 (new coronavirus infection) (# If there is no character limit, add parentheses when it first appears The vaccine is estimated to be available to 250 to 300 million people (2.5 to 3 billion) in India between July and August 2021.

Jameel tells PTI that all vaccines “pre-booked” by India are manufactured by the Serum Institute of India (SII) in Pune at the Indian companies Oxford-AstraZeneca and Novavax, and by Dr Reddy’s Lab in Hyderabad. Said that.

India’s national vaccine candidate by Bharat Biotech also participated in a Phase 3 clinical trial this week.

“Bharat Biotech and Zydus-Cadila also add about 400 million doses annually. Simply put, that number looks reasonable between 2021 and 2022,” said Jameel, director of the Tribedi Bioscience Department at Ashoka University. Says.

“We can expect the first 250 million people to be vaccinated in 2021. The rest of the next year. The problem is not the dose of the vaccine, but the ability to receive the vaccine,” Jameel explained.

He said 1.6 billion doses would cover 800 million people, or 60 percent of India’s population. This should be enough to develop herd immunity, virologists said. This is a form of indirect protection from infectious diseases that occur when a sufficient proportion of the population is immune to infection.

According to virologists, the first 500 million doses are likely to reach 250 million people in a group that includes frontline workers, healthcare professionals, hygiene, emergency services, and security services. ..

This group also includes the elderly aged 65 and over and patients with comorbidities.

Immunologist Satyajit Rath said that there are currently no particularly reliable estimates of the percentage of community coverage that needs to be vaccinated to reach the point of “herd immunity.” He emphasized that the reliability of the models used in these estimates is not clear.

“All vaccine candidates discussed as purchased have double vaccinations, so the current number in India will vaccinate at most 80 chlores (800 million) people, of course. , This does not take into account the loss of significant amounts of logistics, “said Rath of the National Institute of Immunology (NII) in New Delhi. PTI..

“Also, this seems to mean that COVID-19 (new coronavirus infection) (# If there is no character limit, add parentheses when it first appears Vaccination is a one-time exercise. However, it is not clear how long vaccine-mediated prophylaxis will last, so it is not clear when repeated vaccinations will be needed and how they will be provided, “he added.

Russ pointed out some uncertainties about COVID dose purchases and said he was “curious.” About “confirmed” purchases by India.

“Are these paid at a fixed price, or at least committed? Are these acquisitions made through the COVAX program or are independent. Of course, what are the agreed delivery dates for this acquisition? Is it? “

Russ also said it was difficult to predict the number and timing of vaccinations.

“The next uncertainty I have is a reliable and well-developed plan to match these delivery schedules with downstream transportation, ingestion and actual vaccination, multi-stage transportation planning, multipoint refrigeration, and delivery. Is there an injection accessory …, the necessary record keeping, and above all, the skilled personnel to manage the injection. “

In Rath’s view, certain sectors of health care workers are more likely to be vaccinated within the next few months, as are certain percentages of “first responder” people who are at high occupational risk of infection. is. Beyond that, are we just whistling in the wind at this stage? He said.

Duke’s analysis also found that Canada and the United Kingdom each made more than 350 million transactions with seven developers.

The analysis does not include Russia and China. Both have their own vaccine programs for citizens.

Researchers said there were nearly 200 gusts COVID-19 (new coronavirus infection) (# If there is no character limit, add parentheses when it first appears Vaccine candidates are undergoing an unprecedented speed of development and clinical trial process.

More than 10 candidates have already participated in large Phase 3 trials, some with urgent or limited approval.

The number of pre-market commitments (AMCs) made by countries and multilateral partnerships eager to secure vaccine supply is unprecedented, even before candidates are on the market.

According to the report, “High-income countries are currently seeing 3.8 billion doses, high- and middle-income countries hold 829 million doses, and low- and middle-income countries have more than 1.7 billion doses. Is held. “

Researchers said they could not find evidence of direct trading by low-income countries, suggesting that such countries rely entirely on COVAX’s 20% population coverage.

COVAX is a global initiative led by WHO, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), and the international vaccine alliance organization Gavi, bringing governments and vaccine makers together to make them accessible to all countries. aims for. COVID-19 (new coronavirus infection) (# If there is no character limit, add parentheses when it first appears Once the vaccine is available.

Neither of these vaccines has been approved, so Duke researchers said some of the candidates they purchased could fail, hoping that one or more would go through the regulatory process. Added countries that can afford to buy a portfolio of vaccines.

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