Epidemiology professors say the short blockade of “disasters to avoid” continues to skyrocket.

Short blockades such as the recent two-week firebreak in Wales are “disasters to avoid” and the increasing number of cases in Wales warns top epidemiology professors.

Professor Tim Specter, a senior researcher at the Welsh government-approved ZOE Covid Symptom app, says Wales is now three to four times more likely than new cases in other parts of the country.

Regarding the 17-day “firebreak” blockade across Wales that began on October 23, Professor Specter said: “Short blockade and liberation experiments seem like disasters to avoid.”

Health Minister Vaughn Getching said yesterday that the situation in Wales is now “very serious and our medical services are quite persistent due to the number of people who need to be hospitalized for treatment with the coronavirus. I’m under constant pressure. “

“We are worried that we will be able to see how rapidly the incidents have increased by the end of November.”

“The latest data (released on Monday) show that the overall Welsh case rate is almost 70 points higher than on Friday, which indicates the rate of spread of the coronavirus.”

“Currently, there are eight local governments with a rate of over 400 per 100,000 people.”

“This is four times the error on Friday.”

“In 19 of the 22 municipal areas in Wales, cases are increasing.”

Göttching said: “According to the ONS Infection Survey, only Wales did not appear to have seen a decline in infection rates in the last week of November.”

“This reflects stricter measures elsewhere in the UK, with the UK still within the four-week blockade. Northern Ireland is between the blockade and Scotland, with regulations It was strengthened. “

Although cases in the UK are still slowly declining today, Wales is now three to four times more likely than new cases in other parts of the country. A short blockade and liberation experiment seems like a disaster to avoid. We need steady policy and advice over the next three months. pic.twitter.com/Wp0JhqLQ2a

— Tim Specter (@timspector) December 8, 2020

On BBC Radio 4 this morning, Göttching said: “Unfortunately, since the firebreak, despite all the messages and encouragement that more people do the right thing, there have been no significant, lasting changes in behavioral patterns.

“It’s been a very difficult year for people, and it’s difficult for people. People value social contact, but social mixing at home and elsewhere is the prosperity of the virus.”

Göttching said the government “really made it clear that social contact needs to be reduced, people need to choose who they see, how often they see it, and how much time they spend with them.” ..

“The difficulty is that if you go back to exactly the same behavior patterns you had before the fire broke out, you would have more cases.”

“We are now seeing the actual harm here,” Göttching said.

“We will have to make more difficult choices in the coming weeks to keep Wales safe, frankly and keep more people alive,” he said.

In the UK, up to 3 households can meet during the 5-day Christmas period from December 23rd to 27th.

The move was announced last month as part of a wide range of UK-wide measures to help people get together during the festival, in a way that has been described as “as safe as possible.”

“We don’t think we can prevent the Christmas reconciliation.”

When asked if Wales’ Christmas plans need to be revisited, Göttching said, “it’s possible.”

However, he added, “I’m not sure that changing Christmas arrangements will actually make more people do different things.”

“It’s about how we persuade the general public to make different choices. It’s right to take care of them, their families, their loved ones, themselves, and each other. It’s not for my benefit .. “

“If we can’t do that, there’s more harm, more people will come to the hospital, and, really importantly, we won’t keep our hospital alive and meet loved ones. There will be more people. “

Despite some disturbing local media headlines, Flintshire’s prevalence is relatively stable, with an average of about 30 positive tests recorded per day.

From November 28th to December, there are 139 rolling cases for 7 days per 100,000 people, 213 for Wrexham, and an average case rate of 308 per 100,000 in Wales.

Port Talbot (621 per 100,000) and Brynaigent (529 per 100,000) have the highest rates in Wales.

Gwynedd (40 per 100,000, Anglesey (51 per 100,000) is the lowest price in Wales.

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