Health
The United States has killed nearly 300,000 and is expected to die more
As the United States approaches the previously unthinkable threshold of 300,000 COVID-19 deaths on Sunday, experts say that even if the vaccine is in progress, the deaths of the United States in World War II We are afraid that the country is rushing non-stop towards the next milestone, which exceeds the total number.
The week-long surge in coronavirus infections has led to an average of more than 210,000 new infections this month and nearly 2,500 deaths per day, making public health professionals virtually unavoidable for the next major round. I think.by Johns Hopkins University Data, The United States recorded more than 298,000 coronavirus deaths as of Sunday at 1:30 pm EST.
Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said 450,000 people could die by February 1, a year after the death of COVID-19, the first known in the United States. I warned.
Influential model of the Institute for Health Metrics, University of Washington Predict more than 460,000 deaths by March 1With or without rapid vaccine deployment.By comparison, about 405,000 U.S. military personnel died in World War II Almost 4 years or more.
Dr. John Swartsburg, Professor Emeritus of Infectious Diseases and Vaccines at the University of California, Berkeley, said: “It is unbelievable that 500,000 people will die because of the rapid increase in the number of infectious diseases. Those who predicted the current surge in late August. He suffered cases, hospitalizations and deaths. It is expected to continue rising until late January.
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The dreaded short-term outlook, which can be exacerbated by more trips and social gatherings during the holidays, is backed by very promising developments in terms of vaccines.
Vaccine manufactured by Pfizer in collaboration with German company BioNTech Approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration on Friday We may start managing it on Monday. Another vaccine by Massachusetts company Moderna could get FDA approval within a few days. Both vaccinations showed 95% efficacy in late clinical trials.
Other vaccines from Johnson & Johnson and the UK-based company AstraZeneca are also in the pipeline.
“This is really a story of darkness and light about a pandemic, how terrible we are all hearing, and we are all hoping that things will go on, on the one hand, last month,” Jason L. Schwartz said he was an assistant professor of public health at Yale University. “On the other hand, there are two very promising and highly effective vaccines that will be rolled out next week or two weeks.”
Schwartz is one of the four authors of. Papers published in the journal Health Affairs, A group that includes Dr. Joe Biden’s Dr. Rochelle Warrensky, who was elected presidential director of the CDC.
According to this study, vaccine implementation, which involves issues of vaccine production, distribution, and public willingness to accept vaccines, plays a greater role in success than vaccine efficacy. The authors point out that the vaccine program introduced during a raging pandemic is not very beneficial and will be very helpful in controlling it.
Former FDA Chief Scott Gottlieb:With the COVID-19 vaccine, “Get as many shots as you can right away.”
With more than 16 million cases, including more than 2.5 million this month alone, the United States is a world leader in coronavirus infections. The White House Coronavirus Task Force has reported to the Governor that the vaccine will not reduce the spread, hospitalization and mortality of the virus until late spring.
“So, before we see the dents actually made, vaccine and mask wear, social distance, and restrictions on large gatherings will continue for months,” Schwartz said. “Vaccines are a very valuable and urgently needed new weapon in our arsenal. But it’s not the only weapon we have, and we give it to me. You can’t think of it as a replacement for those weapons we’ve always had. “
Functional immunity or sterile immunity?
By the end of the year, 35 to 40 million vaccinations could be given in the United States, and both Pfizer and Moderna vaccinations require two vaccinations every three or four weeks.The· Vaccination Implementation Advisory Board, A group of public health professionals providing guidance to the CDC, Recommended that healthcare professionals and nursing home residents be vaccinated first..
Schwartz lacks reliable figures on the amount of vaccine available in the first few months, and the federal government’s plans to deliver vaccines to specific areas as well as the states that distribute the vaccines are inadequate. I’m troubled by what he thinks is. I need them.
He said he was encouraged by a science-led message from the upcoming Biden administration’s senior health authorities, who are tasked with convincing the public of the safety and efficacy of the vaccine. The president-elect has vowed to receive 100 million doses in the first 100 days after taking office.
Even if the new administration controls it, the duration and type of immunity provided by the vaccine remains a major unknown.
According to Swartzberg, some vaccines promote functional immunity. That is, the recipient can become infected with the virus, but does not develop the disease. If that is the case for new vaccinations, there is still a need for precautionary measures such as social distance and masking until about 70% of the general public is protected, thereby achieving herd immunity. ..
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When a vaccine produces what is called sterile immunity, such as measles and polio vaccines, the recipient does not get sick or spread the virus. Obviously, that’s the ideal scenario.
Pfizer’s data suggests that vaccines may be less than complete and may lean towards sterile immunity, which could lead to 95% of people being ill, Swartsburg said. Let’s say you prevent it from becoming transmitted, and perhaps 90% or 85% of the population is infected. That’s great. “
“All hands must be on the deck” to win COVID-19
Many people may not immediately know, but even before most of the population is vaccinated, the benefits of the vaccine are there.
Nursing homes and other long-term care facilities, which account for 38% of deaths from COVID-19, According to the New York Times database – Stand up for immediate safety.
Dr. George Rutherford of Infectious Diseases said that the nationwide surge in cases puts a heavy burden on hospitals, especially intensive care units, in many parts of the country and protects workers from the virus in those environments. He said it would be one big early benefit. An expert at the University of California, San Francisco.
They have masks and gloves:Nursing homes really need more help, defenders say
“The ICU is more than a bed. It’s a bed and people, and people are a bigger issue,” Rutherford said. “We can’t tolerate absenteeism. People are isolated. We need to put all our hands on the deck and we need to protect them to do that.”
Rutherford is optimistic about the impact of the blockade measures adopted by some states and municipalities on the pandemic, and expects the outbreak to decline by the end of the year or early January.
He is not very bullish on the prospect of an immediate return to normal, partly due to the widespread hesitation of vaccines among the public. According to a survey, about half of Americans are willing to receive coronavirus injections with FDA approval, but the number continues to grow. A Gallup polls show that it has risen to 63%..
In most years Less than 50% of Americans are vaccinated against the flu, This has always been strongly recommended by doctors and has been around for decades. Side effects such as those experienced by two early coronavirus vaccines in the United Kingdom can scare some people or prevent them from returning for the second vaccination they need. ..
“It will be late summer in terms of vaccination of enough people to allow them to throw away their masks and kiss them,” says Rutherford. “Only if enough people have been vaccinated.”
For some public health professionals, the biggest challenge lies in the monumental effort to inoculate more than 300 million people in a country as large as the United States.
The task is further complicated by the need to store the Pfizer vaccine at minus 94 degrees Celsius, requiring a dedicated freezer. The Moderna vaccine is also not that cold, but it needs to be frozen.
Dr. Robert Murphy, Secretary-General of the Global Health Institute at Northwestern University’s Fineberg School of Medicine, said he hopes the vaccine will spread later, even with initial reluctance and distrust.
“For some reason, I think the deployment will be slower than expected,” Murphy said. “One is talking about hundreds of millions of people. And there is a cold chain problem with providing these vaccines. It’s not an easy operation. I’m as optimistic as others. Not at least I think it will take a year to vaccinate everyone. “
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