The COVID-19 vaccine has the potential to end a pandemic, which is why millions of people are planning to skip it.

Derrick Broze, a self-proclaimed non-vaccer, has no desire to obtain the COVID-19 vaccine when it becomes widely available.

The Pfizer vaccine, which is expected to arrive at several hospitals in the Houston area on Monday, may constitute the world’s best hope to end the coronavirus pandemic that killed nearly 300,000 Americans. , Broz sees it differently: “For a vaccine against a virus with a very high survival rate that I don’t want to be a scientific experiment.”

“I’m more concerned about the safety of the vaccine than the danger of the virus,” said Broz, a candidate for Mayor of Houston in 2019 and a mastermind of the rally against forced blockades and vaccination and mask obligations. It was. “I don’t want to put others at risk, but I want to continue to take precautions rather than the risks associated with the vaccine being pushed out as soon as possible.”

Bros is not a minority, both in Texas and across the country. Post-sponsor polls stated that a surprising number did not plan to be vaccinated, with a 95% efficacy rate in the trial exceeding everyone’s expectations. It’s a scientist’s nightmare. It just creates one of the breakthroughs in medicine so that many people don’t bother to get it.

But that seems to be the reality. Numbers appear to have improved since pharmaceutical companies Pfizer and Moderna reported impressive test results last month, but about 40% of Americans voted not planning to get the COVID-19 vaccine. I’m telling you. In Texas, only 42 percent say they do.

Public health officials fear that such numbers will thwart campaigns to stop the greatest tragedy since the 1918 Spanish flu.

Feel to the left: Some hospital workers on the front line were excluded from the first round of vaccines

Lack of trust

At stake is wasting the opportunity to put COVID-19 under control by the end of summer, saving the myriad of lives lost as it takes time to stop the spread of the virus. It also increases the likelihood of the emergence of more deadly or infectious virus strains and is always a threat as long as the infection continues to circulate.

Kirstin Matthews, Fellow of Science and Technology Policy at Rice University’s Baker Institute, said: “Hesitation in vaccination of residents to immunize herds and communities allows activities to return to normal.” The Byden administration ensures that communities are vaccinated. We need to find a way to gain public confidence in the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the FDA. “

The National Task Force, headed by the Johns Hopkins Health and Security Center and the Faculty of Anthropology at Texas State University, added: “If poorly designed and implemented, the COVID-19 vaccine campaign in the United States can undermine the increasingly dilute beliefs recommended by vaccines and public health authorities, especially at risk of the effects of COVID-19. Among the high people. “

The Food and Drug Administration granted an emergency use authorization for the Pfizer vaccine on Friday night and began shipping this weekend to approximately 636 sites nationwide, 27 of which were in Houston. The hospital uses the first dose to vaccinate frontline employees. The dose for the general public will continue in 2021.

Vaccine safety concerns, such as those expressed by Broze, seem to be the most common reason behind vaccine resistance. Other reasons include the ideological view that vaccines are not needed because the pandemic is exaggerated. An increasingly influential vaccine repellent movement. Conspiracy theories such as the claim that the vaccine contains tracking microchips. The African-American community is distrustful of medical authorities because of historical racism.

Distrust of vaccines has been built up for years, boosted by a small but growing movement that works to exempt children from the vaccinations needed by schools for “reasons of conscience.” I did. However, the COVID-19 vaccine has brought a new audience to groups like the Texans for Vaccine Choice. The leader told the publication this summer that the phone was ringing on the phone from people who said they had vaccinated another vaccine but didn’t want it.

Neil Johnson, a physicist at George Washington University who studies anti-vaccine groups on social media, estimates that in recent months, 10% of Facebook people asking about vaccines have switched to anti-vaccine views.

“It’s going to be a bumpy road,” said Peter Hotez, a vaccine scientist at Baylor College of Medicine. “Especially in Texas, media scrutiny and aggressive anti-taxer movements will amplify the adverse events of the vaccine.”

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Hotez said President Donald Trump’s aspirations for those who are worried about safety concerns because the vaccine was developed at a seemingly record-breaking rate, the name of the initiative, the concerns given by Operation Warp Speed, and the October surprise. Answers the perception that may have caused a corner.

Hotez says the vaccine was actually developed over decades rather than months.

Scientists have been studying the coronavirus since the early 2000s, when SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), an old cousin of COVID-19, emerged in China and spread to many countries, including Canada. Four years ago, the Hotez team developed the SARS vaccine. He believes it likely provided some protection against COVID-19, and the strains are very similar. The research behind the new genetically engineered Pfizer and Moderna used in the two vaccines dates back 30 years.

Still, concerns about new vaccines persist. Philip Chatham, Houston’s tax services manager, said he would wait a year or what side effects would he have given his time in the military in Afghanistan and Iraq, his reaction to the vaccine there, and his “experience with the lowest bidder.” He said he would check if it would surface. .. “

And Anthony Catania, a 65-year-old North Texas man who is currently fighting the coronavirus, asks, “Why does the vaccine run the risk of mutating what my old body taught myself?”

Messaging becomes important

Such attention is not only seen among everyday Americans. According to a CDC survey published in November, 63% of healthcare workers say they will be vaccinated with the COVID-19 vaccine, which is almost the same as the number found in general polls.

The proportion is much higher than that of whites and is the lowest among African Americans hospitalized or killed by COVID-19. A recent Associated Press pollster states that only 24% of African Americans are vaccinated.

Distrust is usually due to the Tuskiggy experiment. This was a 1932-1972 U.S. government study that said black men were receiving free medical care, but instead received placebo, which led to the progression of syphilis without treatment. It was observed.

“Most will depend on messaging,” said Catherine Troisi, an epidemiologist at the UT Health School of Public in Houston. “It has to deal with fear and show profit.”

The expensive battle to convince African Americans to get the COVID-19 vaccine is also evident in a Texas University / Texas Tribune poll from October. Fifty-four percent of black respondents said they did not want to be vaccinated, and another 17% said they were not convinced that it was the most identifiable resistance in polls. Rural people, independents, Republicans, and women were also most likely to refuse vaccination.

Polls show that only 42% of Texas get the COVID-19 vaccine, which is below the amount of the flu vaccine. Influenza vaccines usually provide about 50% protection against seasonal viruses. According to the CDC, this rate, one of the lowest in the United States, surged from 38% in 2017-2018 to 48% in 2018-2019.

If only 42% of Texas people are vaccinated against COVID-19, the state is less likely to achieve herd immunity. This is protection from infectious diseases that occur when a sufficient proportion of the population is immune to the circulating virus. The percentage has not yet been determined, but public health experts expect this number to be between 65 and 70.

Hope the polls are wrong

Of course, herd immunity comes not only from vaccination but also from past infections. At the rate at which COVID-19 is widespread, about 30% of the state’s population will be infected with the virus by the end of spring, based on early results of ongoing antibody studies that suggest current figures close to 20%. There is a possibility.

It may be a desirable stadium condition, but experts said there could be a duplication of previously infected and vaccinated people, and by mid-2021 they were infected early in the pandemic. It states that the immunity of some people may be weakened. Also, children make up 20% of the population and will not be vaccinated to the end as shot safety has not yet been studied.

In addition, there are pockets where herd immunity is reduced due to vaccine resistance, such as in rural areas and neighborhoods of ethnic minorities.

“That’s why it’s so important to vaccinate more people than pollsters show,” Troisi said. “We need to increase the proportion of people who are vaccinated to achieve herd immunity.”

However, public health officials expect that the proportion of people vaccinated will be higher than pollsters predict. For one thing, polls are moving at a positive rate nationwide. A few months ago, about 50% of people said they would be vaccinated before the trials showed that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines had a 95% chance of being protective.

Authorities hope that vaccination will become a norm for society, as it will be effective, will not cause serious side effects, and will give vaccinated people the confidence to circulate freely again.

Baylor College of Medicine President Paul Clotman said that in any case, more people would want to be vaccinated than the vaccines available by spring.

“If people choose not to vaccinate, they are endangering their lives,” Clotman said. “I’m not sure what they’re thinking. Currently, we’re losing more people than those lost in the Pearl Harbor attacks and 9/11, and driving a car is more risky than vaccination. Is getting higher. “