Smallpox Mortality: 3rd Century Data Tells You About Epidemics

With the help of his colleagues and undergraduate research assistants, he digitized 13,000 smallpox death records each week-in the last few years.

“I’ve seen the annual number of smallpox, but these weekly numbers, not the weekly numbers, reveal the complete structure of the epidemic, exactly how quickly each epidemic began. I will do it, “said Earn. “Before this, the shape of the epidemic curve was completely hidden.”

Hundreds of years of data

The new study follows Earn’s study of the historical spread of diseases such as bubonic plague, cholera, and scarlet fever.

The goal of his team was to publish these records so that scientists could analyze how disease patterns spread throughout the population. Many historical trends can change the spread of the disease. Natural forces such as weather and changing seasons can cause outbreaks.

And there are social factors: population density, demographic structure, school introduction and the course of the war.

The data spans 267 years from 1664 to 1930, with multiple smallpox deaths per week last year. London’s last death from the disease occurred in 1934.

Researchers were particularly interested in the seasonality of smallpox outbreaks. The team observed in the 17th century that the epidemic occurred primarily in summer or early autumn. However, by the 18th century, these outbreaks had shifted to appear in late fall or early winter.

A quick glance at the 17th century records is a window to another era, and other causes of death include “insects,” “predicament,” “spleen,” “lethargy,” and “fear.” For example, the September 1665 page lists “teeth” as one of the other leading causes of death behind bubonic plague.

One death of the week was in a strange particular category, “burned in his bed with a candle in St. Giles Cripplegate.”

Weekly death charts were only published in some towns. Researchers analyzed data from the Anglican death chart edited from Anglican funeral records.

These records do not record all the deaths in London, but they may have missed deaths that occurred outside the city or without the burial of the church, but the records span many years of smallpox. It describes the ascending and descending fairly accurately.

For deaths after 1842, researchers used the Registrar’s Weekly Return Statistics for more thorough accounting.

Throughout the 18th century, vaccination was the best way to prevent smallpox. This is the process by which a doctor introduces smallpox pustules into someone’s skin from the scab of a smallpox patient.

In 1796, British doctor and scientist Edward Jenner invented the smallpox vaccine. However, actually vaccination of the entire population is another prospect, with regular outbreaks in London throughout much of the 19th century.

The disease was widespread in South America, Africa and Asia until the mid-20th century, prompting the World Health Organization to begin plans to remove smallpox from the world in 1959.

Impact on Covid-19

“This study is interesting in the light of a pandemic, but it was not motivated,” he said, demonstrating the importance of public health surveillance for all illnesses.

“The systematic record of the city of London for hundreds of years now gives us insights into the transmission patterns of the disease,” he continued.

This new pile of data could help future researchers gather insights on how to deal with the epidemic of various diseases. This is another reason to be vigilant, especially as new outbreaks can occur even after the advent of vaccines.

“The smallpox vaccine actually prevented the infection, which is important to actually get rid of it,” Earn explained. “We still don’t know how well it applies to these (Covid-19) vaccines already out there.”

The Covid-19 vaccine has been shown to be effective in creating immunity to the new coronavirus, but scientists still know if Covid-19 can be spread even after receiving a shot. not.

In a previous interview, CNN Medical Analyst Dr. Linawen said no research has been done to investigate the issue.

By the second half of 2021, social distance, quarantine and masks may become less important. However, the history of smallpox, and much of the historical outbreaks studied by Earn, show that Covid-19 can certainly stick and decline and flow into the foreseeable future.

“Since smallpox has been seen for this incredibly long period of time, it is possible that we will see a pattern of recurrent epidemics,” he said.