Locked down California runs out of reasons for the amazing surge

Turnabout confused leaders and health professionals. They can point out many reasons that have contributed to California’s surge in the past few weeks. However, one factor is difficult to identify, and finding a silver bullet is just as difficult.

Given the arrival of Christmas and the New Year holidays, it was never the worst. Authorities fear that residents are more likely to travel and rally than during Thanksgiving, which promoted current trends.

“We are facing very difficult and very dangerous times in our counties, our regions, and our states. All our numbers are going in the wrong direction. , Our reality is pretty harsh at this point, “said Sarah Cody, a public health officer in Santa Clara County, Wednesday.

“If there is a surge on top of the surge, we will definitely break,” she added.

California has a case rate of over 100 new daily cases per 100,000 inhabitants, second only to Tennessee. Non-profit tracking site Covid Act Now — You are not required to wear a mask, and up to 10 people can meet indoors.Website Covid Exit Strategy Shows 97% increase in Covid Throughout California, we’re heading in the opposite direction to the corresponding West Coast Oregon and Washington.

In Los Angeles, officials have always said that people are gathering too often. When the Dodgers and Lakers won the championship this fall, they blamed the celebration and the post-season viewing party.

I have some Blame the strict rules themselves, Said the cooperating Californians could no longer accept it and decided they needed to live their lives. Others say congregation settings remain a serious concern in constrained housing, especially in low-income communities where residents live in tight spaces and have to meet and continue working in person to survive. Stated.

The state has not adopted strict enforcement and has relied on regulators to cite the most problematic facilities in the spot case. However, it does not really hurt people’s gathering or engaging in daily social activities, and many local law enforcement agencies have declared that they will not be curfewed. ing.

“It’s a big situation. When things go wrong, we get big numbers,” said George Rutherford, a professor of epidemiology and statistics at the University of California, San Francisco.

California has begun offering the first vaccine allocations to healthcare professionals, but vaccination is not expected to have a dramatic impact on the spread of the infection until broader distribution.

In the meantime, the state has run out of means to control its spread, and public health officials have little choice but to beg their residents to comply with the rules.

Governor Gavin Newsom has always said that states must rely on social pressure to separate people. The state has spent tens of millions of dollars on billboards and advertisements that encourage responsible behavior with the help of private donors.But Newsom himself made a mistake when he attended in November A gorgeous dinner party with a lobbyist — A fake that fueled resentment and resistance from residents who were already plagued by months of bans.

California, which has about 40 million inhabitants, is approaching 2 million cases and more than 22,000 have died. In any case, the number of outbreaks in California is amazing. Due to the rapid logarithmic growth, the virus has become very widespread and simply easy to spread.

During the biggest shopping month of the year, the parking lots of malls and retail centers are full. Such stores are one of the few indoor operations that are allowed to continue operating with specified capacity limits. Mobility data from Google Newsom’s December stay-at-home order suggests that it has had little impact on keeping people home compared to the previous month, but baselines have curtailed traffic compared to last December. Does not indicate whether.

Rutherford does not believe that the general public is fully aware of the seriousness of the current surge. “People think they can negotiate with the virus,” he said. “Here’s a hint: they can’t.”

Critics are questioning the science behind the regional blockade order. Due to public and industry pressure, state health officials have already reopened the playground and persuaded them to ease the capacity limits of grocery stores. A judge in the Los Angeles Court of First Instance also said the county’s outdoor dietary ban was “arbitrary” and there was insufficient evidence to show that it was the cause of the virus’s spread.

“Nationally, California has had kaleidoscopic applications of all sorts of possible blockade orders that are the most restrictive and have the greatest impact on small businesses and the most economically vulnerable service workers. Still, as far as COVID is concerned, we’re no better than this, “said Jot Condie, Chairman and CEO of the California Restaurant Association, in a statement. “In fact, in LA, indoor and outdoor meals are completely closed and there are indoor meals. [closed] Since July, the virus has been rampant. ”

Congressman Jordan Cunningham (R-Templeton) argues that the state’s attempt to “block certain human interactions without checking if it works” has created some sort of backlash. Did. Than a place like a restaurant.

“Public health officials have lost credibility to the majority of the masses. They are just adjusting them now,” Cunningham said. “The goal post is always moving …. people are fed up with it and think it doesn’t make sense, and they’re not wrong.”

But there are small signs of counterargument that California could turn things around.

This week, the number of new cases has stopped increasing dramatically, peaking at less than 40,000 per day. It is also arguable how wider test access in California contributes to higher per capita numbers than elsewhere. For example, the 12% positive rate here remains lower than in many of the most hit states. On the other hand, only 16 states have low Covid-19 mortality rates. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention..

Most of the transmissions are driven by the Central Valley and the Southern California region (a region more populous than many US states), and some health professionals say that the California surge is a large number of individuals with unique causes. Claims that it should be considered an outbreak of. Most of Northern California still has more than 10% ICU capacity, but the southern part of the state is in the surge phase by comparison.

Still, even residents of the San Francisco Bay Area, who had many of the strictest rules of the year, have seen some relief and a surge in numbers. For some, the decision to ignore an order may result in the survival of their business and their ability to put food on the table. Many essential workers and people living in disadvantaged areas throughout the state had little choice but to continue working.

Andrew Neumer, an associate professor of population health and disease prevention at the University of California, Irvine, said people to suggest that left-handed residents uniformly agreed to the blockade protocol and believed they were at home. Said he often turned to the azure state of California. But it ignores most, if not the majority, of the population who feel they are not.

“In politics, 40% don’t carry the day, but 40% can cause an epidemic,” Neumer said. “California is deep blue, but … from a viral point of view, than people admit to us.” Is also much more purple. “

California reported a record high of 361 Covid-related deaths from the previous day on Wednesday, but the seven-day state-wide positive rate has fallen slightly recently. Health officials in San Francisco have pointed out this week that virus propagation rates have begun to decline, dropping from 1.45 on December 5 to 1.24 as of December 20. This indicates that the curfew may have begun to work. city.

But Neumer is more pessimistic. He said January could be worse, given that December was the worst month of the pandemic even before the holidays.

“We haven’t survived this crisis,” he said. “It’s too early to post-analyze what worked and what didn’t.”

Jeremy B. White contributed to this report.