New research suggests that the university campus is a COVID-19 superspreader

University campuses are at risk of becoming COVID-19 superspreaders throughout the county, according to a new expansive study that shows significant danger, especially in the first two weeks of school.

Looking at the 30 campuses nationwide with the highest number of reported cases, experts found that more than half of the facilities spiked far more than 1,000 coronavirus cases per 100,000 people per week in the first two weeks of class. I confirmed that it was there.

At some universities, one in five students had been infected with the virus by the end of the fall semester. There were more than 5,000 cases at four institutions.

New computer models developed by Stanford University scientists on 17 monitored campuses show that outbreaks translate directly into peak infections in their own country.

Published in Team Research-Refereed Journal Today Computer techniques in biomechanics and biomedical engineering -However, strict outbreak management, such as the immediate transition from direct learning to all online learning, has shown decisively that peaks can be reduced within about two weeks.

Hannah Lu, lead author of the Stanford University Energy Resources Engineering Program, said 1,000 cases per 100,000 people per week when compared to the first and second waves of the pandemic, which has a peak incidence of 70-150. Incidence levels state that the university is at actual risk of developing an extreme incidence of COVID-19.

“Policymakers often use the incidence of 50 COVID-19 cases per 100,000 people per week as a threshold for high-risk counties, states, or countries. Of the 30 in our study. All institutions have exceeded this value. “She says.

“The number of students infected throughout the fall has more than doubled the national average since the outbreak of 5.3% began, with a population of 328.2 million and 17.3 million reported.

“For example, at the University of Notre Dame, all 12,607 students were tested before class and only 9 were positive. Within two weeks of the semester, the 7-day incidence was 3083 and the reproduction number R0 was 3.29.

“However, about 90 deaths have been reported nationwide, mainly among college students rather than students, and the campus-related mortality rate of 0.02% is well below the average COVID-19 mortality rate,” she adds. I am.

Research team members use advanced modeling to assess the real-time epidemiology of COVID-19 outbreaks using SEIR (susceptibility, exposure, infection, recovery) models, and how the disease spreads throughout the campus. I mapped the altitude.

They pulled COVID-19 case reports from 30 university dashboards published nationwide throughout the fall of 2020. These institutions taught directly, online, or a hybrid of both. They selected universities where the number of cases was reported daily and the total cumulative number of cases exceeded 100.

During this period, the number of new cases nationwide fell below 50,000 per day.

The limitation of this study is that the actual on-campus student population is often unreported and needs to be estimated by total enrollment in the fall quarter. “This may underestimate the actual maximum incidence and the proportion of students on campus affected by the virus,” the authors say.

Senior author Ellen Cool adds: “Surprisingly, campus outbreaks in these areas spread rapidly throughout the county, causing new outbreaks in neighboring communities in more than half of the cases.

“It is becoming increasingly clear that these first university outbreaks have nothing to do with the dynamics of national outbreaks. Instead, independence promoted by campus reopening and student invitations to campus. It is an event in the area where the event was held.

“Our results support the widespread fear of early fall that the university could become a new hotspot for COVID-19 infection, but at the same time, university managers said the outbreak in the area. We need to applaud the quick response to manage it well. “

All reported campuses conducted regular monitoring tests, weekly or twice weekly, in combination with an aggressive testing-trace-separation strategy.

“The majority of universities were able to quickly control outbreaks and control infections throughout the campus, but neighboring communities were less successful in controlling the spread of the virus. In most institutions, the dynamics of the outbreak were manageable throughout. Throughout the fall of 2020, there were less than 300 narrow spikes per day, “says Lu.

The team believes that this methodology, combined with continuous online learning, is the best way to prevent college sites from becoming a major hub of illness.

“Our research shows that rigorous testing-trace-isolation strategies, a flexible transition to online instruction, and most importantly, compliance with local regulations is important for reopening a secure campus after winter vacation. “She added.

“We anticipate that the most important aspect of reopening the campus in the coming weeks will be human factors,” said Professor Kuhl. Unfortunately, in the fall semester, if people do not follow the recommendations, all strategies It shows that the best of can be meaningless. ”

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