What will COVID-19 look like in the next few years?

(HealthDay)-Bad news? COVID-19 may have been around for a long time. Good news? Even so, new studies suggest that it can be just another mild illness, leading to inconvenience and discomfort, but hospitalization and death are rare.

why? This theory is rooted in an epidemiological pattern previously followed by four other coronaviruses. Everything has been in circulation for a very long time. In fact, they are endemic, which means that most people are infected in childhood and develop immunity that protects them from serious adult illnesses (though not reinfection).

And that trajectory has led the team of investigators to model what would ultimately happen in the future if most people were similarly exposed to new things. Coronavirus As a child.

“In most cases, the endemic human coronavirus [HCoVs] Just catch a cold [meaning an] Upper respiratory tract infections. ” Research author Jenny Ravin, a postdoctoral fellow at Emory University Department of Biology in Atlanta, added that about 15% of common colds in adults are thought to be due to the HCoV.

“They sometimes get lower Respiratory tract infectionEspecially for very young children and the elderly, “Ravine said. It causes more serious illness only in rare cases, especially among vulnerable people.

“COVID-19 is likely to end up like this,” she said. But no one knows when that will happen, she warned, and the predictions ranged from 1 to 10 years. And there is always the possibility that it will not be deployed that way at all.

Ravien cited several factors that could affect future development. One factor is how quickly the virus will spread in the near future. The other is how soon the general public will be vaccinated in the coming months. Also, it is not yet known how much infection or vaccination will ultimately be needed to elicit strong and durable immunity.

Another question is how well natural infections and / or vaccinations can be blocked. Virus infection Overall, for the period during which either can block serious illnesses that may develop after the next infection..

The idea that the new coronavirus actually becomes mild with endemic disease is fundamental to the fact that the disease continues to progress relatively mildly or even asymptomatically among most infected children and teens. It is based on the above assumptions.

Still, Ravine warned that “if children’s infections become more serious than they are now” would be a bad sign. “There is no reason to doubt that this will happen, but if so, the long-term scenario would be much darker.”

Another concern? The virus can mutate in ways that impair widespread immune development. “But as long as the virus evolves slowly and people are exposed to new mutants while they have some disease-blocking immunity from vaccination or exposure to previous mutants, the disease remains mild. It is expected to be, “Ravine said.

But there is one thing that is clear. “We can influence the path to fashion.” How? One way is to keep the infection rate as low as possible “to reduce mortality and prevent an overwhelming hospital system” until vaccination becomes widespread.

Another option is to vaccinate, especially if you are at high risk of illness. Anyone can get the virus at some point after vaccination, but the vaccine relieves the symptoms. It’s very likely, “she said. ..

The latter point was repeated by Dr. Sandrosinti, a professor of internal medicine and infectious diseases at the University of Michigan, Ann Arbor.

“This is a modeling study,” he said. “And that makes sense. But the timeline is five to ten years away. Yes, over time, changes in the symptoms of this disease can occur without the distribution of currently deployed vaccines. There is sex. In the meantime, millions of people can die. Unnecessarily, “Sinti said.

“So people shouldn’t “I don’t think it’s necessary to vaccinate,” Sinti emphasized. “Current vaccines are very important. This is an academic treatise and an academic exercise. To say that this is not eternal.” , A little hope for the future. But it’s not a strategy. Vaccines are a strategy. “