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400,000 more US deaths than usual after the Covid-19 attack

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Normal up and down weekly deaths in the US since 2015

Since March, at least 400,000 more Americans have died than in normal years. This is a sign of widespread devastation caused by a coronavirus pandemic.

Analysis Mortality data Reports from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show how pandemics lead to abnormal death patterns. Official death toll It is directly related to the virus.

From March 15, 2020 to December 26, 2020, the national death toll was 18% higher than usual. Our numbers may be underestimated, as recent mortality statistics are still being updated.

Our analysis looks at deaths from all causes since the virus settled in the United States last spring, as well as confirmed cases of coronavirus. This allows for independent comparisons of cause-of-death reports, including deaths and the virus itself associated with the confusion caused by the pandemic. Epidemiologists refer to deaths in the gap between observed and normal deaths as “excessive deaths.”

Public health researchers use these methods to measure the impact of catastrophic events in the event of a flaw in official mortality measurements.

Due to the nationwide spread of Covid-19 cases, the geographical pattern of abnormal mortality statistics continues. So far, excessive deaths have peaked three times, similar to deaths from Covid-19.

There are now excessive deaths in all states, with surges in states such as California, Colorado, Kansas, and Ohio, with record deaths in recent weeks.


Regular weekly deaths above and below after March 15, 2020


America

March 15-December 26

Alabama

March 15-December 26

Alaska

March 15th-December 12th

Arizona

March 15-December 26

Arkansas

March 15-December 26

California

March 15-December 26

Colorado

March 15-December 26

Connecticut

March 15-November 28

Delaware

March 15th-December 12th

Florida

March 15-December 26

Georgia

March 15th-December 12th

Hawaii

March 15th-December 19th

Idaho

March 15-December 26

Illinois

March 15-December 26

Indiana

March 15th-December 19th

Iowa

March 15-December 26

Kansas

March 15-December 26

Kentucky

March 15th-December 19th

Louisiana

March 15th-December 12th

Main

March 15-December 26

Maryland

March 15-December 26

Massachusetts

March 15-December 26

Michigan

March 15-December 26

Minnesota

March 15-December 26

Mississippi

March 15-December 26

Missouri

March 15th-December 19th

Montana

March 15-December 26

Nebraska

March 15-December 26

Nevada

March 15-December 26

New Hampshire

March 15-December 26

New jersey

March 15-December 26

New Mexico

March 15th-December 19th

New York (excluding NYC)

March 15-December 26

New York City

March 15-December 26

North Carolina

March 15th-September 5th

North Dakota

March 15-December 26

Ohio

March 15th-December 19th

Okurahoma

March 15th-December 19th

Oregon

March 15th-December 19th

Pennsylvania

March 15-December 26

Puerto Rico

March 15th-November 14th

Rhode Island

March 15th-December 12th

South Carolina

March 15-December 26

South dakota

March 15th-December 12th

Tennessee

March 15-December 26

Texas

March 15-December 26

Utah

March 15-December 26

Vermont

March 15-December 26

Virginia

March 15-December 26

State of Washington

March 15th-December 19th

Washington DC

March 15th-December 12th

West Virginia

March 15th-November 21st

Wisconsin

March 15-December 26

Wyoming

March 15-December 26


Counting deaths can be time consuming, with reports delayed by weeks or months in many states. These estimates from the CDC are adjusted based on how mortality data has been delayed over the past few years. It will take several months for all these numbers to be finalized.

During our analysis, the estimated excess mortality rate was 21 percent higher than the official coronavirus mortality rate. If this pattern continues until January 14, the total death toll will be approximately 470,000.

For comparisonAbout 600,000 Americans die of cancer each year. Abnormal deaths during this period are higher than typical annual deaths from Alzheimer’s disease, stroke, or diabetes.

Measuring excess mortality does not give you an accurate picture of how each person died. Most of the excess mortality during this period is due to the coronavirus itself.But death from is also possible Other causes It’s also rising, as some hotspot hospitals have Overwhelmed And people are scared Take care of illness It is usually viable.Several causes of death May be declining, Reduce driving and limit contact with others as people stay more inside.

Death from drugs Soared According to the first half of 2020 Reserve CDC..Mortality data It lasted until June of last year and is a trend that began before the coronavirus pandemic arrived.

methodology

The total number of deaths is Centers for Disease Control and PreventionBased on the death certificate counted by the Center, it is adjusted to explain the typical delays in reporting deaths.The number of deaths of coronavirus New York Times Database Reports from state and local health agencies and hospitals. Covid-19 deaths include both confirmed and presumed viral deaths.

Our chart shows weekly deaths above or below normal. This includes weeks when the CDC estimates that the data is at least 90% complete, or weeks when the estimated number of deaths exceeds the expected number of deaths. Charts in these states show mortality trends for slightly different periods, as the rate at which deaths are reported to the federal government varies slightly from state to state. Weeks when reported deaths were less than 50% of the CDC estimate are not included.

Expected mortality is calculated using a simple model based on the number of weeks of death from all causes from 2015 to 2019 and adjusted for trends such as population change.

The number of excess deaths has been rounded off.

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