New COVID-19 modeling shows that the pandemic revival in Canada is rapidly deteriorating

The Odawa-COVID-19 epidemic is skyrocketing nationwide, with tens of thousands of new cases and thousands of additional deaths expected in the coming weeks.

New national modeling released on Friday Shows that Canada predicts a total of 796,630 COVID-19 cases and 19,630 deaths by January 24.

Short-term forecasts indicate “continuation of rapid growth,” and if Canadians continue to have the same amount of close contact as others, the epidemic will recur.

Canada will not be able to curb its current proliferation rate unless the limits and strictness are further tightened, Dr. Teresa Tam, Chief Public Health Officer, warned on Friday.

“We have not yet seen a widespread and sustained decline in the number of daily cases, which indicates that we are suppressing pandemics nationwide.”

Since October, hospitalizations have been steadily increasing in high-incidence states, with an average of more than 4,700 hospitalized daily and 875 in the ICU.

When someone is hospitalized with COVID-19, they tend to stay for about 16 days, which is often longer for people with severe illness. This squeezed the capacity of Canada’s health care system and exhausted health care workers, Tam said.

In most parts of the country, local infections are now widespread and are increasing in other high-risk environments such as long-term care facilities, correctional facilities and shelters.

Deaths from COVID-19 are also “steadily increasing,” and the total number of daily deaths can quickly exceed the levels seen during the first peak of the virus last spring. The daily number of cases is already well above the peak of the first wave.

Elderly people continue to have the highest rate of death from COVID-19, but so far 70 deaths have been reported among adults aged 20-39 years.

Needs quick and powerful action

The Public Health Agency of Canada is calling for “quick, powerful and sustainable measures” to disrupt the country’s current growth trajectory.

When the national model was last announced a month ago, it was predicted that Canada was in a “rapid growth trajectory” and had not flattened the curve of the country’s second wave case at all. Modeling on Friday shows that virus spread is still in this rapid growth path.

Some states began to show a downward trajectory at the end of December, but new cases increased again after the holidays. Health officials say this is likely due to people having more contact before and after Christmas and other celebrations, but also because people have postponed taking the test until the beginning of the new year. Stated.

Between Final modeling presentation for 2020Canada’s highest public health authorities have expressed hope that the then introduction of stricter measures in some states will impact the reduction of infections in the coming weeks.

However, according to Friday’s modeling, Canada has seen a “rapid increase” in COVD-19 cases every day since December.

“We need to flatten the curve again,” Tam said.

Vaccine is not enough

The ongoing deployment of the COVID-19 vaccine is positive news, providing first additional protection for those at the forefront and the most vulnerable in Canada, but Tam has most Canadians on the shot He warned that it would still take several months before it could be accessed. Care systems have the ability to manage them on a large scale when the time comes.

It’s difficult if the virus continues to grow and more Canadians are hospitalized.

“As the supply of vaccines increases, the implementation of the COVID-19 vaccine will be one of the most complex efforts in the history of public health. Canadians are tired and have high prevalence in many parts of the country. We know that the winter months will be very difficult as we continue to work on it, “Tam said.

“Often the end of the race is the hardest part, but it doesn’t last forever. For now, we have to double our efforts and accomplish this at this crucial moment.”