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The current deadly US coronavirus surge has peaked, researchers say: Shot

 


With a surge in COVID-19 patients in Southern California in late December, patients are lying on stretchers in the corridor of the overloaded emergency room at the Providence St Mary Medical Center. Currently, the average new daily infection is declining in California and most of the country.

Mario Tama / Getty Images


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Mario Tama / Getty Images

With a surge in COVID-19 patients in Southern California in late December, patients are lying on stretchers in the corridor of the overloaded emergency room at the Providence St Mary Medical Center. Currently, the average new daily infection is declining in California and most of the country.

Mario Tama / Getty Images

The devastating fall and winter waves of coronavirus infection, which is causing so much misery throughout the United States, have finally peaked, according to several researchers who are closely tracking the virus.

Another surge is possible, but especially new, more infectious variants are imminent, but the current wave of new daily infections has reached its highest in the last 1-2 weeks and most since. It is steadily declining in the state. Researchers say.

“Yes, the case has peaked,” he said. Arimokudad, A person tracking a pandemic at the Institute for Health Metrics, University of Washington. “We are coming down slowly. This is very good news — very good news.”

And while hospitals in some places are still overwhelming, Total number of inpatients It also seems to have peaked and began to decline slightly. It has dropped from a peak of over 132,000 patients on January 6 to 122,700 on Wednesday.

Experts say the daily decline in deaths could continue soon.

“Based on current trends, the worst seems to be over,” he said. Caitlin Rivers, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg Epidemiologist at the Graduate School of Public Health. “We are heading for a better place.”

Still community transmission It remains high in most states. According to data tracked by Johns Hopkins University, the United States peaked on January 11 for seven days after seeing an average of more than 200,000 confirmed cases per day in most of December and early January. On average just over 249,000. Since then, the number of new cases has been steadily decreasing, but it is still about 200,000 per day.

Mokudad estimates that the actual infection peaked around January 16th, based on estimates by his team, including those who were likely infected but were not tested.

The rate at which people test positive for the virus is also declining, which is another good sign of a reduction in infections. Dr. David Rubin, University of Pennsylvania, Who does Policy Lab, Philadelphia Children’s Hospital.. “In most parts of the country, we see a reduction in infections,” he says.

Researchers emphasize that tens of thousands of people are still infected daily and will probably continue to catch the virus in the coming weeks. As a result, it will take weeks or months before the number of people who get sick and die is significantly reduced.

“It will take a while, unfortunately it will be a long tail,” says Rubin.

And not everyone is ready to declare that the pandemic has peaked.

“CDC scientists will be reluctant to say that outbreaks have peaked until the number of newly reported cases has declined for a few weeks,” CDC spokesman Jason McDonald said in an email. wrote.

Others have warned that the virus could surge again for several reasons, including the stagnation of vaccination campaigns not rising and the precautions people are taking.

“What we see is a kind of cyclical pattern where things get worse and people are more at home. They are more cautious about wearing masks. They skip restaurants and gatherings. “I will,” says Rivers. “But as things improve, people can relax a bit, reintroduce those dangerous behaviors, and things can accelerate again.”

Another big concern is A new variant that spreads more easily.

“I think this is a really big threat,” he says. Dr. Ashish Jar, Dean of Brown Public Health School. “In the experience of the UK, Ireland and other countries that have seen this, all interests can quickly reverse and things can get worse dramatically. So I’m very worried about this. “

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