Scientists warn against unblocking in “more deadly” mutant Covid strains

Scientists warn that blockade rules cannot be relaxed early after evidence that the mutant coronavirus variant that emerged in southeast England may be more deadly than the original strain. ..

Boris Johnson urged people to stay home and follow the rules after revealing that the new variant may be associated with “higher mortality.”

He warned that other new variants found in South Africa and Brazil might be more resistant to the developed vaccine, and the government may need to impose further restrictions on travel. Told.

At a solemn press conference on Friday, the government’s chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, said early evidence could allow a new British variant to increase mortality in men in their 60s by almost one-third. He said it suggests that there is.

Following a briefing by scientists on the government’s new Respiratory Virus Threat Advisory Group (Nervtag), his warning concluded that there was “realistic potential” associated with an increased risk of death. ..

The new variant is already known to be up to 70% more infectious than the original variant, and regulations have been tightened throughout the UK since late December.

Roland Kao, a professor of veterinary epidemiology and data science at the University of Edinburgh, said the latest findings suggest that they are responsible for the “unexpectedly high” number of hospitalizations, especially around London.

“Recent results showing a reduction in the number of cases are good news, suggesting that mutations can be controlled by existing means, but these results on mortality continue to be burdensome for hospitals and for longer periods of time. It suggests that restrictions are needed, “he said.

Former government chief science adviser and member of the Emergency Science Advisory Group (Sage), Professor Mark Wahlberg, said that if the case did not continue to fall at a “pace,” more stringent action could be needed. Said there is.

“The decision will have to be made on the basis of evidence,” he told BBC News.

“If evidence shows that the decline in cases is not continuing, then obviously policy makers need to consider much more stringent measures.”

Johnson said it would be a mistake to unlock in the UK if the number of cases remained “exorbitantly high” and would lead to “another major rebound” of the disease.

Very small changes can start taking off again from a very high base

On another dark day, another 1,401 people who have been tested for Covid-19 in the last 28 days have died across the UK, evidence that various blockades in place across the country are working. Along with, there was some good news.

A subgroup of sage said the coronavirus reproduction number R was below 1 across the UK, suggesting that the epidemic is receding.

The Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modeling (Spi-M) lowered R, which represents the number of people infected with the virus, from 1.2 to 1.3 last week and from 0.8 to 1.0.

The number of new infections is decreasing by 1% to 4% every day.

However, UK Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitti said the situation in the UK as a whole remains “very volatile.”

“It’s a very small change and it is possible to start taking off again from a very high base,” he said.

“If that happens again, we will face a really, really serious problem.”

Professor Lawrence Young, a virologist at Warwick Medical College, suggested that more serious concerns were evidence that South African and Brazilian variants may be less susceptible to the vaccine.

“I’m more worried because other viral variants identified in South Africa and Brazil bring more changes to the viral peplomer,” he said.

“It is important to determine the ability of antibodies to neutralize viral variants produced in response to vaccination and to study the immune response of individuals infected with the viral variants.”

Sir Patrick said the evidence remains uncertain and there are no signs that South African or Brazilian variants have “transmission benefits” over those of the United Kingdom, and therefore spread or “take over” more quickly. He said he was not expected.