That day-British chief scientists say new virus variants can be more deadly

London (AP) —There is some evidence that the new coronavirus mutant, first identified in southeast England, has a higher risk of death than the original strain, the UK’s chief scientific adviser said Friday. I emphasized that the data is uncertain

“There is evidence that people with new variants are at increased risk,” Patrick Valence said at a news conference.

For a man in his 60s who had the original version of the virus, “the average risk is that for 1,000 infected people, unfortunately about 10 people are expected to die,” he said. It was.

“With the new variant, for 1,000 infected people, it is expected that approximately 13 or 14 people will die,” he said.

However, Valence emphasized that “the evidence is not yet strong” and needs further research.

In contrast to that uncertainty, he said he was more confident that the mutant would be more easily inherited than the original coronavirus strain. He said it seems to be more contagious between 30% and 70%.

Maria Van Kerkhove, World Health Organization technology leader on COVID-19, said research is underway to investigate the transmission and severity of new viral variants.

She said that “no increase in severity has been seen” so far, but that more infections lead to an “excessive health care system” and thus can lead to more deaths.

Evidence that the new variant is more deadly is in a treatise produced by a group of scientists who advise the government on the new respiratory virus, based on several studies.

British scientists suggested that the strain first identified in September did not cause more serious illness in the first analysis, but some recent scientists suggest that it is possible. doing. However, the number of deaths is relatively low, and case fatality is affected in many ways, including the care that patients receive and their age and health other than being infected with COVID-19.

British scientists emphasize that the information so far is very limited and does not know how representative the cases contained in the analysis are occurring throughout the country or elsewhere.

One analysis did not show an increased risk of death for people admitted to the hospital with the new strain. In another example, there was no difference in the probability of being admitted to the hospital with the new strain compared to the previously dominant strain.

Authorities are hoping to learn more in the coming weeks, as reports of hospitalization after infection are delayed and further delayed from infection to death.

“Most, if not all, show an increased risk of death, but there are significant differences in the estimated increased risk of death between different analyzes,” said Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia. Stated. ..

Ian Jones, a professor of virology at the University of Reading, said: “The data are limited and the conclusions are preliminary. However, if the virus infection rate increases, the case fatality rate can certainly increase.”

UK officials say they are confident that the vaccine licensed for COVID-19 will work against new strains identified in the country.

However, Valence said scientists are concerned that the mutants identified in Brazil and South Africa may be more resistant to the vaccine, adding that further research is needed. ..

Concerns about the newly identified variants have created a series of new travel restrictions around the world. Many countries have closed their borders to travelers from the UK, and the UK has suspended flights from Brazil and South Africa.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson said there could be further restrictions.

“We may need to go further to protect our borders,” he said.

The United Kingdom has recorded 95,981 deaths among those who tested positive for the colonavirus, the highest total confirmed in Europe.

The UK is currently blocked to delay the recent surge in coronavirus outbreaks. Pubs, restaurants, entertainment venues, and many shops are closed, and people need to stay mostly at home.

Although the number of new infections is beginning to decline, deaths are still painful, averaging over 1,000 per day, and hospitalizations are 80% higher than at the first peak of the spring pandemic. I am.

Johnson, who is often accused of making overly optimistic predictions about relaxing coronavirus restrictions, sounded pessimistic.

“From now on, we need to live with the coronavirus in some way,” he said, adding that “unresolved issues” if countermeasures could be mitigated.

“At this stage, you really have to be very careful,” he said.

Valence agreed,

“I don’t think the virus is infected anywhere. It will probably exist forever,” he said.

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AP Chief Medical Writer Marilyn Marchione and Medical Writer Maria Chen contributed to the story.