Does life after vaccination mean that we are back to normal?not yet

“The problem really comes down to numbers,” said Hunter.

He explained that if the UK were in the same position as in August 2020, new cases would be less than 1,000 and less than 600 most days, hospitalizations less than 100 and daily deaths less than 100. did. 10. Then the country would be in a better place to relax some of the current restrictions-given that vaccination deployments are underway.

Therefore, the question remains whether vaccines can really change things.

There are many unknowns around the vaccine in use, such as whether it can stop the infection and how long it will provide immunity. This means that if social distance measures are completely relaxed, vaccinated people may still spread the virus or catch it at a later date.

The UK vaccine program has been largely successful so far, but there is another important factor to keep in mind. That is the inoculation rate.

First, the vaccine is currently only available to priority groups, which make up about 20% of the UK population. Elderly people, clinically vulnerable people, and healthcare professionals are much more likely to take it, according to studies. I will upload the vaccine.

As more people become available to the vaccine, it is expected that vaccination rates will decline as some parts of the population (such as children and pregnant or lactating people) will not be able to get the vaccine. Continue to hesitate to take it.

For example, studies have shown resistance between ethnic minority groups. A recent study commissioned by the UK Government’s Emergency Science Advisory Group (SAGE) found widespread involvement among these groups in the United Kingdom.

In a survey based on a November survey, 72% of black or black British respondents said they were unlikely or very unlikely to be vaccinated. The Pakistani and Bangladesh groups are the next most hesitant ethnic minority groups, with 42% unlikely or very unlikely to be vaccinated.

This means that certain measures may need to be taken to protect vulnerable people in unvaccinated communities, depending on the proportion of the previously immunized or vaccinated population. Another surge is possible in the fall and winter cases, Hunter said.

But Hunter told CNN that he hopes to bring some normality as early as summer under “lighter touch restrictions” such as wearing masks and social distance.

This reduces infection because the vaccine may not provide herd immunity, but it reduces the risk of developing symptoms and serious illness, and symptomatic cases are about three times more likely to spread the infection. He said it would be useful.

This will reduce the R number to less than 1. This is an important indicator of whether the epidemic is shrinking or expanding.

Preliminary research suggests that Pfizer / BioNTech vaccines are effective against the first variants found in the UK, but on Monday Moderna said their vaccine was “detected so far.” It is expected to be defensive against emerging stocks that have been vaccinated. ” Early studies suggest that it may be slightly less effective against the first reported variant in South Africa. Moderna said he is developing a new booster vaccine to help combat this decline.

It is unclear whether the Oxford / AstraZeneca vaccine, which was launched in the UK earlier this month, will be affected by the new variant. A spokesperson for the University of Oxford told CNN on Tuesday that “we are carefully assessing the effects of new variants on vaccine immunity and assessing the processes needed for the rapid development of a tailored COVID-19 vaccine as needed.” Told.

As variants continue to pose new challenges to vaccine programs, scientists are developing models to get a glimpse of what the future holds.

Best scenario

According to a study developed earlier this month by John Roberts, a member of the Covid-19 Actuaries Response Group, deaths in the UK have fallen by nearly 90% by the end of March and could be hospitalized by mid-March.Can be reduced by almost 60%

However, the predictive model envisions the best scenario in which the government achieves its goal of first dose to all vulnerable groups by February 15, and everyone provided with the shot accepts it. I will.

Roberts’ model also relies on the assumption that vaccines are 70% effective in preventing infections and 100% effective in preventing serious illnesses that lead to hospitalization and death.

Some experts are uncertain whether the vaccine provides complete protection against serious illness and mortality, and clinical trials have evaluated its effectiveness in developing symptoms, but the data show severe illness. Claims to be more limited. Others also say that full uptake is impractical.

Taking these warnings into account and creating a variety of plausible scenarios can help you predict when any impact will be seen. This was done by researchers at the University of Warwick, the University of Edinburgh, and Imperial College London.

Last week, scientists announced a wide selection of models aimed at addressing a variety of factors that question vaccine deployment and its success.

One model considered options based on vaccine deployment and ingestion in the light of B.1.1.7. The first variant seen in the UK. A study by Dr. Ancoli and Dr. Mark Baglin of Imperial College London, of course, found that the arrival of variants required “more restrictions to gain the same level of control.” .. 78% of the population needs to be protected by immunization due to vaccination or previous infection in order to have an R number of less than 1.

And due to various uncertainties about the efficacy of the vaccines being deployed, they predicted that an uptake rate of 80% or higher would be required to achieve herd immunity-and 3 million times a week. Even with the highly ambitious vaccination program, it takes 4-5 months for the first vaccination to cover 80% of the UK population.

Last week in the UK, more than 2.5 million people received the first dose of the vaccine and 18,177 received the second dose. Researchers estimate that population-level immunity in the United Kingdom was 19% of past infections as of mid-January.

Eventually, the Empire model found that if the restrictions were completely lifted before the summer, “the hospital would be under pressure over a long period of time, and in some cases for multiple periods, leading to substantial additional deaths.” ..

Professor Mark Woolhouse of the University of Edinburgh and his team found similar results.

They examined various coverage rates, variants, mixed patterns, degree of restriction relaxation, and degree of protection provided by the vaccine (against natural protection from recovery from illness). Graphing the scenario and confirming a very gradual mitigation of control measures is much less risky as it begins in spring and lasts until early 2022, from a pandemic without overwhelming the United Kingdom National Health Service (NHS). It may help you get out.

Valuable data and surveillance

None of the UK models can be applied to other countries, but Roberts said that countries that take a similar approach to the UK are, for example, the most vulnerable, with national blockades and other strict restrictions. He says he might see by first deploying the vaccine to the group. Or “want to see”, equivalent result.

“This will be worth it all over the world,” he said, and the UK model helps inform how other countries plan to deploy, paving the way for a long way back to normal life. Said that it can be done.