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Social distance may have to stay until the end of 2021 in fear of a third surge

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Experts warned government ministers that social distance may need to be maintained until the end of 2021 unless the vaccine proves to be 85% effective in stopping Covid-19 infection. ..

In Lancashire, infection rates remain high after the one-month blockade, with 10 of the 14 regions above the national average.

Modeling commissioned by Sage’s subgroup SPI-M and handed over to Downing Street suggests that the UK will experience the third-largest death toll unless vaccination significantly reduces infections. I am.

Currently, most experts believe that the effectiveness of communication will be about 60%, but there is great uncertainty.

Telegram reported Experts also warn that the current blockade may need to be implemented until May.

However, if the blockade is lifted in mid-February (if the top four priority groups aim to get the Covid vaccine), infections and deaths will surge three times in April on the same scale as last spring. There is likely to be.

If the vaccine is 85% infection-blocking, deaths peak at just under 1,000 people a day. With 60% efficacy, daily deaths approach 1,500.

Experts at the University of Warwick warn in a wide range of documents: “Only vaccines that provide high uptake to the general public and high infection control effects can alleviate non-pharmaceutical interventions without significantly increasing deaths.”

Other SPI-M modeling groups, such as Imperial College London and the London School of Economics and Tropical Medicine, are reported to have reached similar conclusions.

“The exact numbers are different, but there is a high degree of consensus,” sources said. Telegraph..

The authors stated that it is important to continue to monitor vaccine deployments in the United Kingdom and other countries.

The paper continues: “New vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 provide a potential exit strategy for this outbreak, which is highly dependent on the vaccine’s deterrent (or depressor) action and population uptake . “

Dr. Sam Moore, one of the authors of the study, said vaccines need to prove “very high” infection control to reduce infection rates.

He states: “If a very high infection block occurs, this can almost save us from it, but it must be very high.

“Even a vaccine with 85% infection control is not enough to keep the’R’to less than 1 on its own. “

Vaccine Minister Nadhim Zahawi, who said he had not read the Warwick newspaper, added: “It will probably take another four weeks to get some of that data back, but we should be able to plan … to see the effects of the vaccine on infections and on hospitalization and serious infections. I can.”

According to experts, as vaccinations increase, early data show that the crisis has eased and the number of positive tests has decreased.

Published within a few days, the study also provides evidence that UK people are protected with a single dose. Times Report.

As of today, 8.38 million British people are vaccinated with at least one vaccine. This is 57 percent of the first four priority groups.

Matt Hancock revealed that five out of six people over the age of 80 in the United Kingdom received the first dose of coronavirus jab.

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